Monday, December 28, 2009

2010: whay kind of a year?

There seem to be two types of Investment Prognosticators: a) the ones that predict inflation coming, gold prices soaring and the economy doing poorly and b) the ones who predict that the economy will recover, the dollar stabilize, gold to reach $1,500 then go into a permanent decline.

BTW, most prognosticators believe that gold will hit $1500 next year; it's what happens after where they disagree. So, it is critical to look at the underlining fundamentals of the economy.

The US financial world was thrown into a dive with the change of the accounting system on Sep 15, 2008. It allowed Obama's socialists to nationalize some banks, the automobile industry, part of the insurance industry and student loans. Through the zombie banks controlled by the Obama regime, currency and gold price can be manipulated as we have just witnessed. When oil contracts were bought up prior to the 2008 election, it softened the economy and made us more vulnerable to the financial attack of Sep 15, 2008. Now, it is contracts to buy dollars that was used to produce the dollar rally. Were these moves instigated by the Chinese so they could rid of their dollars and buy gold? Or, was it done by the Obama regime or some of its proxies to make us believe that printing tons of money is reviving the economy? We know how it is being done, we just do not know by whom.

The economic fundamentals are terrible. The regime is increasing the national debt at unprecedented rates, it wants to transfer income from high earners to the government by raising taxes. Such moves hurt the economy. The regime wants to nationalize medical care and use it as a form of taxation. And, of course, the Bush tax cuts will expire.

In short, taxes will reduce the money in economically competent hands and transfer it into economically incompetent hands. Nearly forty percent of Federal expenditures are financed through deficit spending. We are warned that China and the rest of the world are tapped out and we can not figure on them to finance the reckless spending of this regime, PRINTING MONEY NEVER WORKS.

While, people caution us NOT TO expect inflation (because of the artificially induced deflation of the banks), some pretty remarkable inflation has been noted in the last 20 months. These are government figures and may even underestimate inflation. So, how much did prices go up? Food and beverage: 5.6%, cereal and bakery: 11.5%, Sugar and sweets: 11.8%, Cooking oil: 11.6%, medical care: 7.1%, medical services: 14.0%, hospital: 14%, education: 10%; books and supplies: 14.9%.

My predictions: the driving force for everything will be the $2T in expiring Treasury bills that need to be rolled over and the $1.5T deficit that Treasury needs to finance. How to finance this huge amount? There is not enough, excess money in the world to finance this, so this is what Treasury will do. The FED will create a computer entry of $3.5T (and ironically call it part of their assets) and loan this to the zombie banks they control. The FED will pay interest on this - maybe to the tune of $100B. The banks will be happy to take the money. Nobody will be the wiser right? And if foreigners catch on to the scam, there is nothing they can do. And according to the Liberal cant 'we owe this to ourselves, don't we?' [How we Conservatives missed this I don't know. All this business of working and saving is not necessary. All we have to do is print money.] But, of course, foreigners will know and we will know. The US government will obtain ownership of part of everybody's goods, so everyone will try to recoup their loss by charging more. The price of everything will go up. Do you think that Democrats are too dumb to notice? IMO, Democrats are dumb, but not that dumb. And we will see the beginning of a price/wage spiral. To stop it, the FED will raise interest rates, which will crush the Stock Market and the economy.

The cycle theory predicts that faced with the economic collapse, the regime will loosen interest rates again, continue to print money and put us into the hyperinflationary stagflation pioneered by Jimmy Carter.

So, what is the time table? Lots will happen in the first part of next year. The Stock Market will probably blow off in the first six months and then interest rates will rise by the middle of the year. Bonds will crash soon after, then the Stock Market. The inflating of the money supply even more will come in 2011 and gold will reach its peak of at least 2,200/oz, maybe even as high as 5,000/oz.

Thursday, December 24, 2009

How governments rob the people.







Ever since ancient times, governments have robbed the people by cheapening the money. With gold and silver currency, they would make the coins smaller or dilute it with another metal. For example, the ancient Roman coin the Denarius was made with 4.5g of silver in 211 BC. In Jesus' time a denarius was worth the daily wage of an unskilled laborer (about $21). By the second century the silver content of the denarius was reduced to 3.9g and further reduced by the Emperor Nero to 3.4g. In 215, the antoninianus was introduced, nominally worth two denarii. However, the silver content was equal to only 1.5 times that of the denarius. This resulted in the population hoarding the silver denarius and prices went up when payment was made in antoninianuses. By 270-275 the denarius became a bronze coin. The antoninianus at first was silver then bronze washed with silver. Eventually, both the denarius and the antoninianus were made from melted down bronze. Vast quantities were made and they became worthless. Roman coins were debased so the Emperors could provide bread and circuses to the average population until the State weakened so much it could no longer defend itself.

Modern money is made from paper and is backed by the taxing authority of the nation that makes them. Modern governments also buy the loyalty of the populace by the promise of something for nothing. Such is first financed from higher taxes, then from borrowed money, then from printing more currency. That is the first phase of hyperinflation. When about 40% of spending comes from printing money, the nation is near the start of hyperinflation.

So, governments steal our money by cheapening the currency. But, there is one currency that governments can not print and that is gold. And as paper currency is cheapened the price of gold rises in those (paper) currencies, just as prices rose in Rome when the currency was cheapened.

Inflation, devaluation and exchange of only a limited amount of currency for "new" currency are the methods governments use to steal the money of those who work, to gain the support of those who keep them in power. The US has a large leverage internationally in determining inflation rates. As the value of the dollar lowers, others countries feel obliged to cheapen their currency so they can continue to sell at a predetermined rate. For example, the KIWI dollar rose against the US dollar and the Govt of New Zealand shorted its own currency to bring its value down. Thus, the inflation being created by the Obamabots is being internationalized.

There is one currency that can not be defaced or printed and that is pure gold and silver. That is why the value of gold has risen against all currencies. Since 2000 gold has increased in value as follows: Chinese Yuan (+200%), US dollar (+260%), Canadian Dollar (178%), Russian ruble (360%), Mexican Peso (417%), Swiss Franc (155%). As the US dollar is printed in vast quantities, its value is set to plummet. Do not be fooled by the temporary rally in the US dollar. No one escapes the laws of economics.

Tuesday, December 22, 2009

Lessons from History.







One of the lessons we have learned from history is that a seemingly strong regime - one built on a faulty idea - will look the strongest before its downfall. Such was the downfall of the Evil Empire of the Soviet Union, based on the idea of state ownership and central planning. Before the Soviet Union fell, it was proclaimed by the Mainstream Media and our intellectuals as the "Way of the Future." When the dust settled from the fall of the Berlin Wall, we found out that the seemingly invincible strength of Communism was a mirage, carefully crafted by Communist image makers and dutifully transmitted to us by the "mainstream" media.
What we see unfolding now is the economic unraveling of Social Democracy. To be sure, the idea of a government perpetuating itself via printing money and sustaining itself is not new. But the evidence of its unraveling becomes clearer every day. We did not see the coming of the demise of the Soviet Union, because the Communists maintained absolute secrecy, but Social Democrats are leaving footprints in the snow. The election of Barak Hussein to the US Presidency has opened the door to a terminal form of hubris. The throwing of the emergency break on the US economy in 2008 Sep 15 started a chain of events that will discredit not merely the Socialists Of America, but the Socialists of Europe. What is happening is the demise of the US dollar, which will bring down the currencies of Western Europe as well.
And this brings us to another lesson of history. You can delay the inevitable and make it appear that the laws of economics have been repealed (or at least suspended) by producing events that seem to buttress a regime built on thin air, but when economic realities assert themselves, the change is swift. Such is the case of the US dollar.
We have seen a steady increase in the value of gold vs the US dollar. The reason is the tremendous increase in the amount of US currency being generated. Now we see a TEMPORARY reversal and the value of the dollar going up. What gives? Can the Obama regime reduce gold prices by printing more paper money? NO, but they can create the impression. The question is HOW?
The lowest graph shows you the volume of options to purchase US dollars. Note the tremendous increase in volume in November and December. At the clip of 15-20M shares of UUP a day (at a cost of $350 - $450 million/day), the price of the dollar can be driven up. You see in the second graph from the bottom that this is indeed the case. Both, UUP and the USD have risen a fair bit. At the same time, the price of gold has fallen, because it is denominated in US dollars. This is a classic tail wags the dog scenario.
There is another factor to consider. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) tells us whether price changes are supported by money inflow or are simply transitory trends, soon to be reversed. The RSI is depicted in the top graph. Values are usually between 30 and 70. Values below 30 mean the stock is oversold (rally is expected) and values above 70 means the stock is overbought (a drop is expected). All three (UUP, USD and Gold) are out of their normal channels: UUP and the USD are overbought and Gold is oversold. We are having a second chance to get into gold cheap.
Who is responsible for the manipulation? We do not know.
Finally, look at the S&P 500 index (last graph). We see it is topping out.
So, the fundamentals remain the same. The Obama regime does not dare to increase interest rates, because it is afraid of a Stock Market Crash and a double dip recession in an election year. That will hasten the fall of the dollar. Printing more money and "monetizing" the debt will also hasten the dollar's demise. The Social Democrats of Europe are scrambling to keep up with the cheapening of the dollar. The whole structure of Socialism is crumbling before our eyes.


Thursday, December 17, 2009

Gold, USD and the DOW.













Gold has been on a rise since 2001(lowest figure). The way this figure is plotted is logarhytmic which reduces the actual rise to a percentage rise. The fact that this line is nearly a straight line reflects that gold prices are rising a steady percentage a year. This is a reflection of the fact that the FED increases paper money a certain percentage per year. Note that there were times when the increase in gold prices corrected; such as in 2006 (when gold dropped from 700 to 550) and in 2008, when gold price dropped from 1000 to 700.


The graph one up from that is the relatively recent price change in gold. This is plotted on a linear scale. Pls note that gold broke out of its wedge pattern in September this year and did two rather classic upward moves: about 80 dollars up and 30 dollars down. In November, however, gold moved up as expected, but instead of correcting back, it added another month's worth of up move and then began to correct. Anti-gold forecasters touted the upmove as a parabolic blow off before the top. Gold began to slide since that time and is heading down today, erasing yesterday's gain.
Before you believe the pundits that gold is terminally on its way down, let me tell you about some anomalies and the fundamentals. Gold miner stocks are resisting the move down in gold, minimizing the drop on the downside and maximizing their upmoves (see the next graph up, THM, which is my favorite gold miner). The second anomalie is the tremendous change in UUP, contracts to buy dollars. Buying UUP is wiping out shorts in the dollar and the activity in UUP may be driving the rise in the dollar, which in turn lowers the value of gold. How far can that go? Quite far apparently, but somebody will suffer tremendous losses eventually. Of course, when the US govt covers your losses via bank loans on which they pay profits... The Obama regime is determined to show that the Country and its economy are doing well, but that is an illusion. The third anomalie is what is happening to gold and dollar prices. Yesterday, gold went up in the Asian markets, today there is a big down move in New York. Are the Asians given a chance to get out of the dollar at a good price?
Finally, gold prices rise to reflect the printing of paper currency. This trend can be countervailed for a time, but not permanently.
At the present, gold prices briefly dropped below 1100. Is this the bottom? I do not know, but I still believe that gold will hit 1500/oz next year. The DOW? One very knowledgeable analyst says that the DOW needs to rise to 10,800 for us too be out of the Bear Market. We are near that, but it remains elusive.


Sunday, December 13, 2009

Winter Storm Algore.

Do I really want to string up Algore? Not really. It is just a poetic exaggeration. But, a long time in the poky is definitely deserved for his crimes.

Worldwide cooling continues.

A month or so ago, temperatures fell to -40F in Alaska. This week, it is Western Canada. Temperatures as low as -50 are reported in some locations. The Province of Ontario is paralysed due to heavy snow, some places chest high. Only main roads are open for now.

Anomalous cold is reported from Victoria Province in Australia as well. There has been a dusting of snow in Melbourne and Baw Baw Mountain even though Australia is only two weeks away from Summer.

Winter Storm Algore was harsh on the Midwest and New England. Cape Cod is reporting record numbers of stranded dolphins and a certain kind of turtles.

All these are fine ways to celebrate the climate fraud meeting in Copenhagen, where European commies have gathered demanding shutdown of industries, ZPG and other anti people initiatives dear to Leftist hearts.

Thursday, December 10, 2009

Obama's impeacable offenses.

1. Offense #1. Failure to defend the Nation. Breech of Presidential oath.

The publication of the manual on how airport security works reveals for terrorists how to get through airport security(Brian Ross, Dec 8, 2009, ABC). As such, this fact imperils Americans traveling by air. Attempts to pass this off as an inadvertant breech is simply nonsense. Such materials are top secret and it takes a willful act to put them on the Internet. Obama is ultimately responsible in the failure to maintain proper supervision.

2. Offense #2. Misuse of public funds. Paying off Hillary's campaign debt from public funds.
The offense is alleged to be that contracts awarded to Mark Penn are in fact paybacks for Hillary's campaign indebtedness incurred to Mr Penn for her unsuccesful nomination bid. While, the report (The Hill, Dec 10) claims that Hillary's loan was repaid in August, payment of her campaign debts was one of the conditions Hillary set for supporting Obama.

Monday, December 7, 2009

Stock Market alert.

The Stock Market and the gold markets are about to get a correction. Not yet a reversal. The fundamentals have not changed, but trader sentiment has. This is why it is important:

When bulls and bears are equal, there is little opportunity. But, when sentiment tips to one side or the other, bet the other side. Here is how it works. When sentiment becomes very bullish, there is hardly anyone left to buy, so prices drop. When sentiment turns overwhelmingly bearish, there is no one to sell and prices go up. Right now everyone is invested with little money on the sideline left to buy. Gold has been up from 860 to over 1200. So, everyone with cash has bought in. Now comes the drop in stock prices and gold prices and those with UUP shares will make a bundle.

Financial media will prattle about the effect of the Dubai World default, the effect on financial, etc. But, that's all just to make themselves look important and wise. The real reason is that people are short of cash.

The fundamentals have not changed though. The FED created $2T trillion new currency last year out of the thin air and will create about $3.5T next year. Anyone who thinks that will make the dollar stronger is a fool.

Russian adventurism on the rise.

Russian adventurism is once again on the rise. Will it go as far as re-invading the Baltics and Ukraine? Can not tell at this point. The machinations of PM Putin and the rivalry of Pres Medvedev and PM Putin to run the country encourages each to sound more pro-Russian than the other. There are two bones of contention between Russia on the one hand and Ukraine and the Baltics on the other. One is the discriminatory treatment of Russians who live in Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. This is a legitimate grievance of Russia, though these populations were transplanted into the Baltics to colonize them for Russia. The second issue is the three ring circus of what WWII meant for these people. One the one hand, there are the Russians and those pro-Russian now, to whom the invasion by the Soviet Union was a "liberation." Then there are those who side with the local fascists and resister to Russia to whom the Russian invasion was just that - an invasion. The third ring is the population who regarded both the Germans and the Soviets as invaders and occupiers. This issue can be stoked, manipulated and used by Russia to re-invade. At the present time, the Russians are using groups of Socialists to condemn those who celebrate resistance to Russia as "fascists." This is done to irritate pro-nationalist elements so the disagreement escalates into violence. The Obamabots, as can be expected remain clueless.

Another area of rising tension is the increased adventurism of Russia in the Balkans. Americans should understand that the occupation of Kosovo by Albanian invaders, the subsequent ethnic cleansing of Albanians first then Serbs and the overthrow of the agreement to keep Kosovo part of Serbia gives a legitimate reason for the Serbs and the Russians to invade Kosovo.

The Bush administration made huge blunders in both Kosovo and Georgia. By continuing the pro-Albanian policy of the Clinton years and accepting the Albanian declaration of independence for Kosovo, the stage is set for an invasion of Kosovo. And by egging on the idiotic leadership of Georgia, a strong military response was assured by the Russians. No idiot should have missed the consequence that attacking Russian soldiers in South Ossetia would draw a strong response.

The failure of US governments to co-operate with Russia to produce a situation that everyone can live with has played into the hands of people who see politics as an all or nothing proposition. That always leads to war.

Sunday, December 6, 2009

The latest on the dollar and gold.

Gold took a tumble Friday, going from 122x to 1162. As I write this, the gold price is fixed at 1157 in Asia and Europe. Here is my take on this:

For three months now we have been treated to scare scenarios as to how gold might tumble, because it is merely a commodity, earns no interest and will tumble when good economic news comes around. So, along comes the Dubai financial massacre and gold tumbles momentarily then recovers next day. Then we have this Friday and tonight when gold tumbles a total of 5%. What might be happening?

I think that people got a few facts incorrect. First, the dollar and gold move in opposite ways, so you can decrease gold price by increasing the price of the dollar. How? By buying up options in the dollar. In fact, I produced the graphic that showed a big upsurge in the volume of UUP (these are USD options to buy). So then, the buying call options on the dollar moved the dollar up and shorts had to cover. Friday's rise in the dollar was in fact a shorts squeeze. And that dropped gold.

What will happen now? Well, I think the rise in the USD is merely temporary and the shorts squeeze will reduce their ability to keep up the price of the dollar. At some point, the sale of the USD will take off again and the dollar will weaken. Meantime, use the dip to buy more gold or buy into gold mining stocks.

Friday, December 4, 2009

Thursday, December 3, 2009

Black pea soup (charro bean style).

Charro bean soup is probably best to make with a light-colored bean, if you want to stay authentic. But, you can use black-eyed peas, or, as in this case, black peas. When using black peas, the resultant soup is black, thick and spicy.

Ingredients: 1/2 lb black pea, 1/2 gallon broth, 1 large onion chopped, 4 jalopenos (make sure to discard seeds and veins), 3 strips of smoked, thick bacon (Hungarian smoked bacon is best for this), 1 can chopped tomatos, 1 chicken boullion, 1/2 cup chopped cilantro leaves and about 1 tbsp salt.

Method: Remove rocks (if any) from the beans and soak them overnight in water. Rinse them under hot water and simmer in 1/2 gallon broth (chicken or turkey) for about two hours. Fry the bacon strips and the onions. About half an hour before serving, add everything else except the cilantro. That is added just before serving.

We ate this with flour tortillas.

Dubai World lessons.







One can only marvel at the audacity of the planners and architects of Dubai. The size and scale of the buildings and undertaking is simply colossal. Apart from the two artificial islands, Dubai had an indoor ski slope, an underwater hotel, a space port, a sports city, numerous skyscrapers and hotels and an area that was to recreate the seven wonders of the Earth. Disneyland on a stupendous scale.
Yet, there was something nagging me even before I read that Dubai World, the owner of the company building this city is bankrupt. How could they attract enough people to occupy the apartments that went for 2.5-5 million and the villas on the artificial islands that went for a lot more? Not only that, but how were the people (the occupants) to maintain cash flow to finance such lifestyles? Along came the Obama meltdown and Dubai World is in hock for $60B.
Did anyone wonder about the feasibility of the financing? Or, were they just enamoured with the idea of a planned community? Some banks (supposedly the British and other European banks) did not do enough due diligence. Dubai World seems to have been built in the air. Even sand had to be imported! It shows you what happens when people disregard realities of finance and just forge ahead because they love the idea.




Wednesday, December 2, 2009

The reference to Lo-Ruhama.

Those of you not familiar with the Bible, let me explain the reference.

Hosea was a son of Beeri, in the days of Uzziah(792-740), Jotham(750-735), Ahaz (735-715), and Hezekiah (715-686) -kings of Judah and king Jeroboam of Israel (793-753). The Lord asked Hosea to marry a harlot, so Hosea would experience the betrayel God felt at the hands of Israel. The Northern kingdom had become just like its Canaanite neighbors, its kings reaching the throne through murder, the people engaged in evil practices, including abortion and idol worship.

So, Hosea married a harlot by the name of Gomer, who bore him three children. God told Hosea to name the first one Jezreel, symbolizing the breaking of the bow of Israel (of its army) by Tiglath-Pilaser III of Assyria and scattering the people. The second child born to Gomer (a girl) was named Lo-Ruhamah. In Hebrew it means "she has received no compassion" and it refers to God being through with forgiving the people of the Northern kingdom. Gomer's third child of harlotry was also a boy and God asked Hosea to name him "Lo-Ammi," literally meaning not my people. This was the severest judgement from God, the nullifying of the Covenant with these people.

The naming of the poem Lo-Ruhamah means that God is through forgiving us and is punishing us by turning us over to evil desires of coveting and theft through "redistribution." The reference to "Joan of Arc" is to a female candidate who might lead us away from the punishment - if we repent.

Lo-Ruhamah




Review of concepts and predictions. Dec 2009.

If you have been reading these posts, you have come along on a journey to understand economic concepts, moves in the financial world and their causes. In this journey, I first unearthed the relationship MxV=QxP, which is the relationship of the money supply (M), money velocity (V), the gross national product (Q) and prices (P). No, I did not discover this, others did. But, I found out that the adoption of the 'mark to market' accounting system on Sep 15, 2008, is what brought V down very sharply and drastically dropped Q. This was a deliberate act to elect the communist Obama and blame the economic catastrophe on George Bush. The ploy worked.

The first year of the Obama regime was devoted to nationalizing the big banks via "rescuing them;" by firs declaring some of their assets worth zero then giving them monopoly money to replenish their reserves. The same thing was done to the insurance industry. GM and Chrysler were "bailed out" then declared bankrupt by puppets installed by the regime. Shareholders and creditors of GM and Chrysler were deprived of their properties. This was nationalization - pure and simple.

So, in a sense, the Obama regime is a continuation of the Roosevelt era and only the nationalization of health care remains to be done to complete the transformation of the US from a Capitalist (economically free) country into a Socialist entity. Once that is done, the regime will turn to make its rule permanent: 1. institutionalize voting fraud by the likes of ACORN, so it can not be voted out of power; 2. bring in millions of illegal aliens who have little or no concept of how Capitalism works and respond to the compesino/Patron relationship; 3. raise taxes to 50% on the average American; 4. disarm the population. The Socialists would also like to censor free expression, so only the regime and its supporters in the Media can be heard.

The hardest thing for an average American to understand is that the economic hardships visited upon us are done on purpose to force us into accepting Socialism. The Socialists (Democrats) want to downsize America's economic and military might and one way of accomplishing this is to reduce the value of the dollar. Another way of doing it is to increase the price of energy.

The process of "rescuing" our economy has already raised the price of gold and is lowering the value of the dollar. At the bottom of this is the expansion of the money supply. I have documented the explosion of the money supply. I have found out that real inflation is shown in the HAI Monetary Inflation Index, which has already risen, whereas the CPI (consumer price index) lags the HAI.

Along the way, I gathered the best predictions re the economy and gold prices. The economy continues to stagnate and the 2.5% rise in GDP is all due to govt spending. On Sep 2, I gave you a prediction of the DOW going to 12,000, mostly due to the effect of increased money supply. I predicted gold to go to $1,300/oz, based on the inverse head and shoulder technical formation and the size of the head. I reiterated these predictions in posts of Sep 11 and Oct 6. This morning's gold price reached $1,2009/oz.

I will make further predictions in Jan 2010, God willing. Gold will continue to rise and so will the DOW. Nothing goes up in a straight line, so there will be drops along the way.

Do not listen to regime shills who want to keep the price of gold down. Expect the 'mark to market' rule to be applied to commercial real estate as the regime will nationalize a lot of that. Keep the faith.

Tuesday, December 1, 2009

Inflation is here.
















If you listen to the airheads that appear on TV networks (ABC,NBC,CBS,MSNBC and the Clinton News Network), the economy is doing better and inflation is under control. We know that these people lie, but how? First, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) does not include energy prices and food costs. The true measure of prices is measured by another index; the actual buying power of the US Dollar. Actual buying power of the dollar has been decreasing (so the index of prices has been rising), while the value of the dollar has been decreasing. These are documented in the first two graphs. [I apologize for not being able to move the graphs, but Blogger has been "improved" and it no longer moves graphs or allows text to be imported.] The 2.5% rise in GNP is also deceptive. You see, the GNP includes the Nation's output AND GOVERNMENT SPENDING. There is little to no rise in output, the 2.5% growth in the GNP is due to increased government spending.

The loss of the value of the dollar is also reflected in the rise of the value of gold. Gold is the money of the free market, while the dollar is the money of the government, now in the control of Obama Socialists and radicals. The US govt has created $11T credit for guaranteeing various financial entities and doubled the monetary base. Inflation (in the CPI) is guaranteed. Inflation in real terms is already under way.


Gold bull markets have 3 phases: 1. currency devaluation; 2. the investment phase and 3. the mania stage. We are into phase two and the anti-gold cabal is less able to manipulate gold prices down. But, we are also beginning to see signs of phase three as mints have stopped minting gold coins (gold shortage) and central banks are beginning to hoard gold. How high will gold go? In a previous post I have shown you the inverse head and shoulder formation that predicted a rise of $300/oz at that point. We are almost to that point, but some experts I read predict a gold price of #1300/oz by year's end. How about the top of the gold price? That is a bit more difficult. The last serious gold bull market took the price of gold to almost $2,000/oz. Using that slope for the current bull market would yield a calculated price of over $5,000/oz. If the world finds out that the US govt no longer controls the alleged stockpile of $300B worth of bouillon, that alone will double gold price.

In the meantime, expect the Obama shills to pull all kinds of stunts to try to keep down gold prices. One of these stunts is the manipulation of gold price via flooding the market with paper gold (promissory notes to deliver gold). That is dangerous for the regime, as people can demand delivery. Another stunt is to create rumors that would keep gold prices down. Such as the rumor that Chinese banks are insolvent. (Not true, Chinese bank deposits are increasing faster than banks are making loans). How about the suggestion that what we are experiencing is a bubble in gold prices? Nice touch, but no cigar. The total asset value of the US is 145T and the total value of the gold bouillons is $5.7T (153,000 tons). Of that $3.6T is traded as commodity (96,200 tons), $1.1T is owned by central banks (26,700 tons) and $1.0T is in private hands (24,199 tons). A bubble? Hardly.