Ukraine: so, how is its hopey changy thingy working?

Ukraine has made it clear that it wanted nothing to do with Russia. Ukraine's President Poroshenko was proud to report that the Ukraine made it through the Winter without any Russian gas. How did they do it? By buying gas from Western Europe for a cost of 30% higher than the Russian gas. Donald Trump would call that deal stupid.

That's not all the dumb deals the govt of Ukraine has done. By severing ties with Russia the Ukrainian defense and aviation industry has lost 80% of its income. And by severing ties to Russian banking, the Ukraine is losing out on revenues that come from Ukrainian migrant workers sending money home. So, it is not surprising that living standards dropped in the Ukraine by one half. Inflation is 43%. Any more deals like these and the Ukraine risks becoming a failed state.

The economic blunders of dealing with Russia were accompanied by political blunders. Refusing to rent to Russia the base at Sebastopol prompted the Russians to annex the Crimea. And refusing the population of Eastern provinces to retain their Russian culture prompted a civil war and Russian covert support which virtually destroyed Ukrainian heavy industry. Talk is now ripe in the Ukraine (derision intended) to build an armed force to oppose Russia. The Ukraine needs a Trump.

Rubio: his sun is setting.

The GOP nominating contest is almost over and Trump is securely in command. How do we know this? Well, the Donald was actually quite magnanimous yesterday and he was beginning to call for Party unity. He has turned his eyes on the post election and called for a big effort to retain Congressional majority.

Kasich hopes of winning Michigan had not born fruit but it was Sen Rubio that has come to within a whicker of being out. He was blanked in the delegate hunt yesterday.

Polls show Trump leading in Florida comfortably and even leading in Ohio. If Trump wins both states, it's all over.  Ted Cruz is still in the race, but he is an underdog.

On the Dark Side, time is running out for Bernie the Socialist. Yes, he did win Michigan, but Hillary got more delegates.I guess we will be stuck with her shrieking harridan routine during a whole year.

BLS report has a superfluos "L."

Day after the payroll report was a doozie. The Drive-by-Media reported breathlessly that the economy added 242,00 jobs (non farm) and Obama was taking a victory lap. Even the speculation about the FED raising rates has resumed. As usual, looking under the hood of this report shows a different picture.

First, wages and total hours worked had fallen - highly unusual when jobs created go up;

Second, 129,000 of the phantom jobs came from the B(L)S model of "Birth/Death";

Third, the B(L)S added another 100,000 for the "February effect" as the thaw set in.

So, most of the job gains were phantom gains.

HOWEVER, crude oil went up and reached $40/bbl in Europe. Clearly, this will stem further slide in oil field layoffs. Also, gold and silver is taking off per forecasts.

The long and short of it is that the FED will be reluctant to raise rates. That means continued deflation and economic stagnation.

How NOAA tries to manufacture global warming.

They have been caught red handed.

Here are the data. The points plotted center and on the right is what NOAA plotted on which they based the "global warming" claims. When all the data are plotted, it becomes clear: temperatures dropped then recovered. No warming trend. Just a desire to cheat.

Western powers lose control of the gold price.

Western powers were able to set the gold price by the paper contracts on the COMEX. That is now over. During the artificially maintained bear market in commodities, a lot of contracts and derivatives were used to keep gold prices low. Central banks feasted on the cheap gold and so did the Chinese and the Indians.

Capital is now moving to the East as they trade precious metals for real. No phony paper contracts.

Odds on the election.

The saying is: PUT YOUR MONEY WHERE YOUR MOUTH IS.

That is easy in England and Vegas. Bookies give  you odds when betting. So, what are the odds? Hillary is quoted as 4/7,  Trump as 5/2 and Rubio as 18/1. Kasich does not show too well, either.
Some odds makers put the odds differently: 66% Hillary and 33% Trump.

The British bookies have already paid off bets on the nomination of Trump.

Why is the betting going against Trump?

First, Trump is fighting his way to the nomination by vanquishing enemies.
Second, the GOP Establishment does not want to give up its power.

Do Trump's tactics work for anyone? NO! Rubio has found out the hard way. Trump is liked by his voters not because of his antics, but in spite of them.

Another factor is the resistance of the RINOs and Establishment figures (Note Romney and Sen McCain the Dunce).

Finally, Larry forecasts 4 years of a "roller coaster ride through Hell." I an sorry to say this, but that implies a Hillary win. The US will be run by two felons and their henchmen.

Have oil prices bottomed?

Light crude shows a bottoming of price. While the Saudis brag they could withstand oil going to $20/bbl, it is not something they can survive for long.

American producers emote that if oil goes to $40/bbl, they are coming back. We will see. It is said that a lot of the drop in oil prices was engineered by short sellers.