How far can you trust Larry's calls?

Larry is at it again. This time he is setting the new low for gold at 1050 to 1070 but claims that the rally in gold can not resume until gold hits that low. He admits that the miners are now in rally mode, but has ten stocks to avoid, including FSM and GPL.

Let's review his recs.

1. He predicted that the Stock Market  would fall to 9,000. It did not and his followers incurred heavy losses from buying the bearish ETF.

2. He now says that he got his clients out of the gold stocks at the top. That is not how it happened. He told us that he became bearish on gold in the short term, but not in long term and mid term. He told his followers to stay with their positions, but buy the bearish gold ETFs as a hedge, which did not do so well and hit the sell point. Yes, he did tell us to sell all gold stocks, but by then those stocks were plummeting.

3. He has called for gold to hit a low at 1050, then at 1210 then at 1050 now. He says he is getting hate mail, but I think it is only criticism of him making calls that turn out to be wrong.

4. How about his admonition to avoid GPL and FSM?

Here is the course of the GDX. Larry admits that the miners started rallying.

We see the double bottom beginning about June 26 or so.

Here is GPL and FSM:

We can see that GPL is doing somewhat better than the miners. FSM had a double bottom in April with a retest of the low in May and is on a tear now.

 

 

The problem I have with Larry is that he is erratic and denies his mis calls, acting as if they never happened.

 

A Tale of two Cities

is the title of Dickens' novel of the French Revolution, as well as the title of FitzWilson's interview for KWN. Dickens was a critic of "conspicuous consumption," as contrasted to the plight of the French peasantry before the Revolution. FitzWilson's contrast has to do with the plight of Detroit as compared to Palo Alto and Facebook.

In fact, California itself offers a contrast of the haves and have nots: the conspicuous consumption of Hollywood and Silicon Valley  and the poverty of the inner regions of California, away from the Coast.

Drudge quotes an AP story that 4 out of 5 US adults face near poverty and no work. Even the surface wealth of the California Coast is shaky: 1) box office revenues for Hollywood are down by 19% and 2), Silicon Valley is propped up by the Stock Market bubble created by the FED.

The contrast between Detroit (Obamaville) and Palo Alto grows deeper, as ever larger parts of the Country fall victim to the chickens of Obama's economic policies coming home to roost.

1. Why do we have a "jobless recovery?" Because ObamaCare is forcing business to get rid of as many workers as possible and convert full timers to part timers.

2. Thus, the desire to look good in the profit column drives an unusual number of workers into unemployment.

3. Insurance premiums are driven sky high because of the mandates of ObamaCare.

4. The cost of an ever enlarging government shrinks the ability of private business to expand and hire more workers.

The French Revolution exacted a heavy price from the French aristocracy. Let us hope that our revolution takes place at the ballot box and exacts a heavy price from the ruling class.

Weiss sees war coming.

Here is how it is put:

"The good news: Iran won't nuke Israel.
The bad news: The war to stop it will be ugly.

Here is how [they] think events will unfold ...

• An Israeli strike on Iran nuclear facilities and missile development infrastructure will lead to ...

• Vicious air war over Syrian, Lebanese and Iraqi airspace, followed by ...

• An Israeli land invasion of Lebanon to neutralize Hezbollah’s rocket capacity, while  ...

• Iran tries to choke off oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz!

Then it will get even worse ...

• Egypt’s paramilitary Muslim Brotherhood will obstruct the flow of oil through the Suez Canal.

• The final blow: an Iranian missile strike on Saudi oil fields.

When all this happens — and it will — world markets will suffer the worst one-day loss since 9/11. Crude oil could skyrocket to as high as $200. I expect to see gold make daily jumps of $100 or more.

If U.S. carrier groups in the Arabian Sea come under fire, we could see $300 oil and $2,000 gold — or even more!"

Larry's contradictory calls.

Larry's newsletter for July reiterated his old call of 1050 to 1100 as the bottom of the gold price.  Furthermore, he predicts this to occur in September. Both of these calls contradict his recent calls for nibbling at the SPDR gold fund and some gold miners. Tomorrow Larry is to present a session on gold miners. Why do that unless he recommends a buy?

What is going on? I think he wrote the newsletter earlier and failed to make the proper corrections. An alternative explanation, that he plans to punish the $49/yr subscribers for not having upgraded to the $2,600/yr subscription is too sinister to contemplate.

What about the gold and silver miners? The GWS (an ETF that tracks the miners) has now had three up waves. Check out also THM, NAK, ISVLF (or IPT.V), GPL and FSM and they all show 20-50% gains.

Big banks rig electricity prices.

Banks Caught Manipulating Electricity Trading Now Face Billions in Fines
By Shah Gilani, Capital Wave Strategist

What haven't the Big Banks manipulated for trading profits, with taxpayers picking up any losses? First it was toxic derivatives, CDOs, CLOs and all that junk that led to government bailouts.

Now it's electricity trading. Shah Gilani shows that it's become the new Enron. The Big Banks manipulated the bids in the market, just like Enron. They got caught, paid big fines, but their profits still soared in the second quarter, with trading gains making up a big part of that.

Big Banks sure do know how to make big trading profits by rigging the game...

WHY? Greed of the Bankers.

http://pro.moneymappress.com/EDIGOLD1199MML/EEDIP736/?email=bszepesi%40peoplescom.net&a=8&o=3713&s=4377&u=2043775&l=104696&r=MC&g=0

Mike Ward of Money Morning has analyzed the takedown of the gold price in Money Morning. The reference to his article appears above.

This is NOT a CONSPIRACY theory. It is a description of criminal activity, just like the fixing of the LIBOR was. The financial media and regulators have failed to notice it yet, but $1.2T was pocketed by the criminals and an industry was damaged. When the litigation begins, there will be all sorts of them.

Is this the new BUY SIGNAL?

Larry Edelson in fact did give a buy signal. He recommended cautious buying of three gold miners. Which ones? Well, only those who pay the 2,600/yr to be part of the Traders group get to be told which ones.

Lt's see though what we can deduce from the data.

Gold has executed a double bottom, with the second bottom being higher than the first one. Couple this with the reported shortage of gold and silver metal and a case can be made that the bottom og the gold correction is IN.

The gold miner index (GDX) confirms: we had three up moves, each ending highere than the previous. Down moves in the upmoves are 1/3 or 2/3 of the upmove as you expect for the classical Fibonacci pattern.

The correction seems to be over.

How about the long term. Here we have to consult the amount of metal allegedly in US possession, vs the debt.

We see that reported gold in US vaults is down to 8,000 tons, while debt continues to accumulate.