Friday, February 14, 2014

Larry: Gold in a sucker rally?

Finally, Blogger let me upload a graphic for gold.

There are three points of interests here: 1. Gold has continued to trade above the 50 DMA, 2. Gold has closed above the 200 DMA and 3. The rally is not happening over large volumes. In other words, this is NOT a short squeeze. What is it?

The second graph is the Gold Miner Index. It is very similar to the Gold chart. Both. Gold and the Gold Miner Index began to rally after the first of the year and after the charts described a double bottom (more noticeable with Gold). Both charts behave as a regular rally with occasional dips along the way. Gold is yet to reach 1,360, which will confirm the rally, but GDX has closed above 26, which does confirm the rally in Gold Miners.

What to make of Larry's statement that this is a sucker rally? Larry still believes in his models and refuses to see the facts. He was just as adamant that the DOW would fall below 9,500, before he invoked some magic "Inversion" and gave up on the idea of the DOW crashing.

Will he be just as wrong about the rally in PMs? Only time will tell. But, I would not short gold at this point and quit looking for gold at $900/oz. In fact, Larry lapses into incoherence when he predicts that his followers will be able to buy gold at 1,200 and see gold go to 900.

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