I checked with the various gurus and here is the trend to expect. I emphasize that I do not average contradictory opinions as that would give me guidance that is useless.
Here is my sum. The ECB is waiting to print again. Greek parties that agree to austerity are rising in the opinion polls, so the rescue of Greece will continue. Then there is Spain, Portugal and Ireland and Italy waiting to erupt.
I agree with Larry that both the ECB and the FED are waiting for the right time to print. So is Switzerland. The main motive is to avoid deflation and initiate some serious inflation to stimulate moribund economies and inflation to combat deflation. Volatility will come from inflationary and deflationary forces clashing.
Larry thinks that the FED will wait untill the DOW hits 12,500. I do not think that they will wait till then. Bernanke wants the Obama regime to win re-election and for that they need an economy that is humming if even for just a few months. Such things have a lead time, so Bernanke does not have a lot of time.
Sunday, May 27, 2012
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