Wednesday, October 16, 2013

Will manufacturing disappear?

That is the question that one asks after reading Mr Cho's article:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1738042-my-80-year-prediction-on-3d-printing-and-robotics?source=email_the_daily_dispatch&ifp=0

Cho's prediction can be summarized as such: Parts will be manufactured increasingly by 3D printers and put together by robots. Thus, there will be less and less need for low-skilled workers. Cho's prescription? To get better education.

Apart from the fact that education delivers less for more cost, not everyone is capable of absorbing higher education, let alone gain a skill for employment. Inasmuch as our universities specialize in Sex, Drugs and Subversion, it is highly questionable that universities impart useful skills.

It is much more likely that we will see a strong resurgence of the Luddite movement. We already have examples: the anti genetic modification of plants, the "organic food" movement (which is inferior product at higher prices) and the 'lower your standards' (hippy) movement championed by the followers of Gov Jerry(Moonbeam) Brown.

I am not unsympathetic to the Luddites. To find out that not only your skills, but you, yourself are no longer employable is a horrific thing. No doubt that our Marxist Party (the Democrats) will insist that people be put to work on building infrastructure. Unfortunately, there is no longer money to provide for govt subsidies for people. That fatted calf had been killed and eaten already.

What is the solution then?

Historically, when the cost of manufacturing drops, living standards improve and all sorts of new jobs spring up, along with new occupations. It will not be smooth, but if the govt will provide the "fix," it will be bloody difficult.

In the meantime, 3D printer stocks are expensive, with a P/E of over 100.

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