Ukraine: Amateur hour.

Anyone who is entrusted to deal with Russia must be well-versed in three things: 1. history; 2. Poetry and 3. chess. The need for these skills is obvious: they influence greatly how Russians think and act.

Let's start with poetry. There is a poetic saying that Russia without the Ukraine is a Country, but with  the Ukraine, Russia is an Empire. Then there is chess. The game requires that one thinks through the permutation of moves and counter moves needed to achieve one's aims. Finally, knowledge of history is necessary to understand what happened, because often actions are determined by what happened in the past.

Forget about bemoaning the fate of Crimea. It WILL BECOME part of the Russian Federation. It was part of Russia for a long time until Khruschov decided to gift it to the Ukraine. The political mechanism is already there for annexation and the facts on the ground are being prepared. So, why aren't the Russians acting on it now?

The publicly stated rationale is that the re-annexation of Crimea is necessary to protect the Russian population and the naval base at Sevastopol. The Russians are waiting for the Ukrainians to attack. That might give them the excuse to overrun the rest of Ukraine.

What should the US do? sacrifice the Crimea for a treaty for Russia to stay out of the Ukraine. And give up on the idea of making the Ukraine a part of NATO. The US has little leverage other than becoming a supplier of oil and gas to Europe. But that is in the future. Right now it's ZIP, nichevo, nada.