This blog will deal with large things and little things: spiritual truths, politics and economy, news, comment, food and the State of Texas. Oh, and my poetry and pictures. Enjoy.
As the graphic shows, arctic ice has increased and is back to normal again. Polar bear population is at record high. Algore should be indicted for racketeering.
"To play a responsible role in the evolution of a 21st-century world order, the U.S. must be prepared to answer a number of questions for itself: What do we seek to prevent, no matter how it happens, and if necessary alone? What do we seek to achieve, even if not supported by any multilateral effort? What do we seek to achieve, or prevent, only if supported by an alliance? What should we not engage in, even if urged on by a multilateral group or an alliance? What is the nature of the values that we seek to advance? And how much does the application of these values depend on circumstance?"
These are the basic questions the next President should address.
Yours truly had predicted that Russia would invade the Ukraine on Aug 8-9, but I was off by 10 days. Russian troops are now fighting in the Ukraine, albeit they are on vacation.
So far, the Ukrainians have proven to be stupid and their actions have goaded the Russians into more and more belligerent actions. It is time to listen to a former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger:
Kissinger reminds us of the ties between Russia and the Ukraine and suggests that the dispute requires that the end results and goals to be considered. If the contention is to be peacefully resolved, a state of mutually unsatisfactory goals must be achieved. Mr K list them as:
"1. Ukraine should have the right to choose freely its economic and political associations, including with Europe.
2. Ukraine should not join NATO, a position I took seven years ago, when it last came up.
3. Ukraine should be free to create any government compatible with the expressed will of its people. Wise Ukrainian leaders would then opt for a policy of reconciliation between the various parts of their country. Internationally, they should pursue a posture comparable to that of Finland. That nation leaves no doubt about its fierce independence and cooperates with the West in most fields but carefully avoids institutional hostility toward Russia.
4. It is incompatible with the rules of the existing world order for Russia to annex Crimea. But it should be possible to put Crimea’s relationship to Ukraine on a less fraught basis. To that end, Russia would recognize Ukraine’s sovereignty over Crimea. Ukraine should reinforce Crimea’s autonomy in elections held in the presence of international observers. The process would include removing any ambiguities about the status of the Black Sea Fleet at Sevastopol.
These are principles, not prescriptions. People familiar with the region will know that not all of them will be palatable to all parties. The test is not absolute satisfaction but balanced dissatisfaction. If some solution based on these or comparable elements is not achieved, the drift toward confrontation will accelerate. The time for that will come soon enough."
Mr K forgets a couple of things:
1. Russia will not give up the Crimea.
2. The Ukrainian govt is not elected by the entire people of Ukraine. Its current leaders are not merely hostile to Russia, they are suicidal. Ukrainians are requesting membership in NATO, a sure sign of fatal instability. Should the request be granted, it will initiate a war between NATO and Russia, fought on Ukrainian soil with weapons of mass destruction. Let's hope that some reasonable people will come forward in the Ukraine who are able to step back and devise a workable solution.
Ever since the Soros -financed overthrow of Ukrainian President Yanukovits, Russia has been systematically pushed toward war. First it was the statement to Russia that the Russian fleet would not be allowed to renew its lease in the Crimea. The Russians responded by retaking the Crimea. Then came the veiled threats of putting NATO troops on Russia's border. These threats are no longer veiled as Fogh Rasmussen has disclosed plans to put forward bases into countries East of what used to be the Iron Curtain. The purpose of these Bases? To receive fast response NATO troops (meaning American Marines) in case the Russian tourists start coming with hardware.
That is not how the Russians see this. First they saw an attempt to deny them a warm water port (a former Russian territory) which they have leased. Then, when they retook the Crimea, the Western powers responded by an economic war. Now, the West is threatening Russia with building forward bases that can be occupied within hours of a decision to commence hostilities.
Let's remember that Russia has withdrawn from E Europe VOLUNTARILY. Now, Russia is urging the Ukrainians to adopt a more neutral stance and provide autonomy to the largely Russian-speaking Eastern Ukraine. So far, the Ukrainians responded by military force and have largely retaken the regions of Luhansk and Donetsk:
NATO's efforts to start a war with Russia is deliberate. It is the act of madmen whose economic policies have failed and now try to rescue their failed economic morass by war. Democrats, for example, believe to this day that the Great Depression was ended by WWII.
“There is no means of avoiding the
final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is
only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of the voluntary
abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as the final and total
catastrophe of the currency system involved.”
Clearly, the rally in the Stock Market and the Dollar is created by the credit expansion. The mechanism is not always clear, especially with the Dollar, but the economic troubles of Europe and credit expansion in Europe is related to the Dollar's sudden rise.
It is estimated that large-scale gold production will cease in about 20 years. Smaller PM miners are being forced out by the artificially low prices. I am getting tired of hearing that gold prices are about to go up then see sideways action and drops.
By IMD Professor Arturo Bris In the summer of 2008, the US financial sector suffered one of the most damaging events in its history. The volatile stock market, induced by the subprime market, led to the default of Lehman Brothers, and subsequently to a massive global crisis. We are now in a post-crisis period. Yet, looking back to between 1945 and 2008, we see that the frequency of financial crises and recessions is quite high: on average, there is one crisis every 58 months (using data from the US National Bureau of Economic Research). In other words, statistically speaking we should expect the beginning of the next crisis in April 2015, which would end by March 2016. So are we in a post- or a pre-crisis period? I do not want to be the bearer of ill tidings, but I think we should always wonder what the cause of the next crisis will be. There is no single episode of financial panic in the last 50 years that could not have been prevented. This time, let us look ahead, not react after the crisis. The world economy is now more interconnected than ever. Financial markets are heavily regulated while capital markets are expanding in Asia, Africa and Latin America. The banking sector is going through a concentration process with fewer and fewer players left. Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey (the MINT countries) are coming into focus after Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (the BRICS) have disappointed. Europe seems to be back in the game, with Germany leading the recovery of the continent. The US is still the world's most competitive economy,according to the IMD World Competitiveness Ranking. The process of deleveraging the balance sheets of governments and companies is under way. Interest rates and government bond yields are at historical lows and stock markets have recovered to pre-crisis levels. So what is there to worry about? There are eight possible scenarios that could cause the next crisis, none more important or likely than the others. For some, prevention is straightforward. For others, I am not sure there is much we can do. Some of them represent imminent threats. A few are more long-term, less dramatic sources of instability. Stock market bubble Between June 2013 and June 2014, world stock markets returned 18 per cent on average. Of course, performance was uneven, not unlike a "normal" year: the market return was 30 per cent in India, and a meager 8 per cent in China. However, most companies that announced results during 2014 disappointed markets, and for most large corporations, stock markets have reacted negatively to annual earnings. The reason is that, driven by excess liquidity and a lack of alternative opportunities, a lot of money has flown in to equity markets. The Yale University economist and Nobel Prize winner Robert Shiller has shown that the gap between stock prices and corporate earnings is now larger than it was in the previous pre-crisis periods: 2000 and 2007. If markets were to return to their normal earning levels, the average stock market in the world should fall by about 30 per cent. Chinese banking system Shadow banking (lending by anything other than a bank or outside the control of financial regulators) now represents more than 100 per cent of GDP in the US, and about 70 per cent in China. This is more of a problem in China than in the US, for two reasons. First, in China the banking sector is protected from foreign competition — only local banks are allowed to operate independently in the country. As a result, without any threat in a huge market, the biggest banks in the world are now Chinese. They are truly too big to fail. The second reason is that a big part of Chinese shadow lending goes to central government and provincial governments. Banking regulation in China is considered to be very stringent, but we know what happens when regulators become self-interested. Without a doubt, the next banking crisis will be triggered by a Chinese bank. Energy crisis An energy crisis now would not be caused by the scarcity of energy sources — quite the opposite. The development of fracking techniques and growing supply of gas in the US have turned shale gas into a potent geopolitical weapon. If the US Congress were to allow energy exports, energy prices in the world would fall significantly. This would be great for companies, but would trigger geopolitical problems in Russia and West Asia. These countries rely on energy demand from western Europe and China, where energy costs are currently hurting competitiveness and where a cheaper alternative would be welcomed with open arms. New real estate bubble The conditions in 2005-07 that led to a real estate bubble are back: low interest rates, growing demand, and increasing real estate prices in some markets. With respect to the demand factor, in current market conditions, the only attractive investments for institutional investors are real estate and equities. As a result, prices are increasing. The Bank for International Settlements has recently released data on real estate prices in several markets from 2013. Between the end of 2007 and the end of 2013, residential property prices increased by more than 80 per cent in Brazil, 60 per cent in China, and 15 per cent in Canada. There are also fears of a bubble in other countries such as Switzerland and the United Arab Emirates. Like any other bubble, it will only become one once it bursts. What is different in 2014 is that now central banks have a great tool to prevent real estate bubbles: Basel III and its countercyclical capital buffer. Corporate failures The norm for companies is now to be BBB-rated. In the US, there are only three firms that still are AAA-rated: Johnson & Johnson, Exxon Mobil and Microsoft. There were 61 in 1982. Since interest rates are low, companies see the benefits in debt financing. But this means that firms are also more sensitive to changes in interest rates. Typically a BBB rating is associated with a probability of default of about 4 per cent in five years. Therefore, we should expect that in the next five years, about 16 companies in the S&P500 index will go bankrupt. One of them could be the new Enron. Geopolitical crisis From Nigeria to Ukraine, and from Syria to Venezuela, the world risk map shows too many hot areas where geopolitical events could trigger a world crisis. Why should anyone care about Ukraine or Syria? Because financial markets tend to overreact to political events. And because, given the financial linkages among countries, negative sentiment in China will trigger a market collapse in the US and vice versa. Let us not forget the lessons of the Great War (we are now commemorating the 100-year anniversary): the butterfly effect can be deadly in politics. Poverty crisis Over the last few decades the world has become richer and more prosperous. While the percentage of the population in absolute poverty is today at its lowest level ever, the absolute number of poor people continues to grow. In this context income inequality is one of the social battles that we need to fight. But the problem with fighting income inequality is that the usual solutions (typically taxes) hinder the competitiveness of nations. This is one of the long-term crises that will require smart leadership to avoid inefficient solutions. Cash crisis There is too much money out there. It is the result of quantitative easing policies that central banks have followed. The excess liquidity in the system is concentrated among financial and non-financial firms. Citigroup has more than $487 billion in cash; Apple about $150 billion. It is paradoxical that, in some cases, banks and firms are so rich that they could buy entire countries (if one takes into account the total GDP minus government debt). If the corporate sector were to unload such massive financial resources (as is their moral obligation) on to society, they would create hyperinflation and hence financial crisis. But otherwise we are in a situation in which central banks print money that they will have to take out of the system later. We know how quantitative easing works, but we do not know how to exit from it. While we can already see these eight sources of a new coming crisis, the problem is that many obvious solutions that governments can implement would be detrimental to world competitiveness and could hinder local economies. More taxes, more regulation and more protectionism all create a more hostile environment to economic growth and competitiveness. Politicians and corporate executives should now look to diversify, to seek varied geographical presence, to be flexible, resilient and to manage risk. They should cultivate and reward talent and improve their credibility in society. To boost their nations' competitiveness and their chances of inclusive economic success, leaders need to invest internationally and make acquisitions in order to make their countries attractive to foreign capital. In order to avert the next crisis and others after that, global leaders should be making employment, sustainability and social cohesion the top priorities of their nations. Arturo Bris is a professor of finance at IMD and directs the IMD World Competitiveness Center. He will present on the fundamentals of finance and on competitiveness at IMD's Orchestrating Winning Performance program in Singapore from November 17–22. AJ adds: Crises arise because governments or powerful financial elements try to corner (regulate) the Markets. When supply and demand regulates prices, the Markets function relatively smoothly. When other considerations override the Markets, crises arise. The more the Markets are interfered with, the more the likelihood of a crisis.
Putin is quoted stating that replacing the Assad regime would set free forces far more cruel and dangerous than Assad. In fact, Putin was right. The madman Obama has turned lose ISIS and failed to secure the gains moderate Arabs made in Iraq and Afghanistan. In the conflict between Hamas and Israel, Obama favors Hamas.
Why am I bringing this up? Some of you know this already. But, what is not generally remembered is that WaPo was among the cheerleaders that egged Obama on. Now that those policies have brought forth chaos and greater danger for the United States, WaPo tries to pretend that they were not part of the insane Obama worship that promised to usher in peace and lower the seas. In fact, the WaPo is borrowing a page from the Obama playbook of campaigning against his policies and their effects.
President Putin was right about Syria and he is right about the Ukraine. The language and cultural rights of the Russian diaspora must be respected. The Western Europeans (along with the Obama regime) are wrong sanctioning the Russian Federation. Instead of their misguided policy, they should help promote a peaceful solution. Is that possible? Certainly. Russians and Ukrainians are not Muslims.
RUSH: Look, I want to revisit something from yesterday, because I don't ever want one of the themes I think is important here to be lost in the daily avalanche of new developments. Remember that everything happening in Ferguson, Missouri, is a myth. Everything is a myth. The fact that this happens all the time is a myth, and that's what's driving this. Even Spike Lee, in a sound bite that I didn't play but I've got here, talks about how there is a war on black men in America. There's a war on black men and the implication is it's a war being conducted by white cops. But of course Spike Lee conveniently forgets to talk about all the black-on-black crime in this country, which is the majority of black crime is black-on-black. The majority of black murder victims are killed by black murderers. Chicago, Detroit, you name it, black-on-black crime is the number one criminal problem for African-Americans. But that just won't do. We have we have to sweep that aside. Don't even report that. Kind of keep that under wraps because you can't run on that, but you also can't fundraiser on that. You can't further the idea that this racial divide hasn't improved since the days of slavery. And you can't perpetuate myths like are being perpetuated in Ferguson, Missouri.
I just want to again remind you of something. This is not common. It does not happen all the time, and yet the story is being covered and treated by everybody involved as though it goes on so much that we've had our fill of it now and we finally gotta stop it and the only way to stop it is to convict this cop. It's going on way too much. The black people of America are fed up. This has got to stop. The only problem is, it isn't happening. It is irregular when this happens. It does not happen.
It did happen a lot in the sixties. It did happen in the early seventies in the South, primarily when Democrats were in power. But it doesn't happen anymore. When this happened, just to give you an example of what I'm talking about, when the Ferguson story erupted, what was the most recent example people hearkened back to? Rodney King. When did that happen? About 1990, 1991? Over 20 years ago was the last memorable case of cops killing and mistreating a black perpetrator. Now, there have been some, but they didn't make the news. They weren't national stories like this.
This is a myth, folks, it is a total myth. A myth is the fuel that perpetuates this. I'll give you another example of how it's a myth. Last week, from the moment the story was reported, until Friday, the assumption was that a gentle giant was walking along the street on a beautiful sunlit Saturday afternoon thinking about, of all things, his excitement at beginning college very soon. Yeah, right. And then disaster struck. The media had been demanding video from a convenience store where a robbery took place where the gentle giant might have been. Finally that tape, that video was released. The media had been demanding the release of that video from the convenience store. The federal government, the DOJ, had been suppressing that video. They didn't want it released. The police chief finally relented and released it, and what did it show? It showed the gentle giant not being gentle. It showed the gentle giant robbing a convenience store and roughing up the proprietor for box of cigars. It was crystal clear. It was unquestionably the gentle giant. And then from that moment on, full out civil unrest began.
Why? What was on that video? It wasn't doctored. It wasn't made up. It wasn't fake. It had not been photocopied. It was real and it showed the gentle giant not as a gentle giant. It totally destroyed the myth! And that's why everybody lost their minds. They had this in the bank. They had the cop in jail. They had the cop convicted, until Friday when the video hit. The myth was totally nuked. The myth was totally destroyed. Here we had more evidence, here we had more information, which everybody was demanding and everybody was clamoring for, and we got it, but because it went against the myth, it went against the narrative, all of a sudden rioting began and looting began. Why? It was more truthful information.
The only reason the looting began is because the myth had been blown sky-high. Now it wasn't clear-cut and it wasn't gonna be easy to put this cop in jail, because now the entire circumstance changes. And we've had even more information. Now we know that the cop was really roughed up. He might have a blown orbital eye socket bone, whatever. The gentle giant was not just trucking down the street minding his own business thinking about going to college and was harassed and taunted and killed by a white cop. That's not at all what happened. But that's what the myth was, and now the myth, the myth is gone, and people are mad. So now that the myth has been destroyed, they still have to somehow get back to it. And one of the ways they're doing that is to go after the DA. Now it's the DA, McCulloch. The DA cannot possibly be fair. He's been DA for who knows how many years. He's 56 years old, he's been a Democrat, nobody's ever had a complaint about the guy, at least not that anybody's ever heard. He's been trucking along doing the job fine and dandy, now all of a sudden Bob McCulloch is unqualified. He needs to recuse himself. He needs to quit. He can't be fair.
No, Bob McCulloch may not get back to the myth and act on the myth. They can't trust that Bob McCulloch will ignore all the evidence that disproves the myth. They're afraid Bob McCulloch might actually include the evidence that destroys the myth and so he's gotta go, because the myth must survive, the myth must triumph. Why does McCullough have to go? Well, he can't be fair because his father was a cop and was gunned down in the line of duty in 1964, and because of that -- I just saw it on CNN. I just saw a black Democrat senator, state of Missouri, said, "He can't be fair. His father was gunned down. He cannot be fair. He's biased toward the cops."
What that means is: we can't guarantee the outcome we want with this guy. McCulloch even said that. This is a big mistake. McCulloch goes on TV and starts talking about his job and how he's gonna deal with this, and he thinks that he's being proper when he says he will not guarantee an outcome because he doesn't yet know all the evidence and the grand jury hasn't hurried it. When he said that he can't and won't guarantee an outcome, it was like last Friday all over again. And now he's got to go.
And further evidence of how it's impossible for him to be fair, his mother worked for the police department, too. Did you know that? Yeah. And he's been really, really close to the cops all of these years. Really? He's a DA. He's been close to the cops? Who would have thought that? Are not most state attorneys, prosecuting attorneys, district, whatever you want to call 'em, federal prosecutor, are they not close to the cops? They're on the same side. And you see any prosecutor is going to be on the side of the cops. That's the way the system's set up. At any rate, he's gotta go. He said he can't guarantee an outcome. Father killed by a cop. So he's the latest challenge to the myth. He was minding his own business. So he's come out and said (summarized), "Okay, you want to get rid of me? You gotta have the governor do it. The governor's the guy you have to go to." Grab sound bite 25. Here's Bob... He might pronounce it McCull-lock. I'm not sure. I haven't heard his name pronounced. It's either McCull-luh or McCull-lock.
But he was interviewed the other day about the grand jury commencing today, and here are his thoughts. This is what he said.
MCCULLOCH: It undermines everything except the cover that he's pulled over his head, and that's his sole purpose in this. He said absolutely nothing last night that is in any way, shape, or form meaningful, and it only aggravates the situation. We're gonna proceed -- you know, as I laid out to people -- until I'm told, if I'm told by the governor that I can't. And the most devastating thing that can happen is if a week from now, a month from now he decides that he's taking me off this case. You know, then everybody's starting over. So stand up! You know, man up. Stand up and say, "I have this authority; I am not removing McCulloch/I am removing McCulloch," and let's get on with this. This family deserves nothing less than that.
RUSH: He's talking about the governor at the beginning of the sound bite. The governor said he demanded a "vigorous prosecution." Now, this governor, he's just pandering. He's just pandering to Democrat voters. That's how shameless that is. He's not an idiot. It's just pure pandering, and Claire McCaskill is engaging in some of the same pathetic pandering to Democrat voters and African-Americans.
I mean, what business does the governor have demanding a "vigorous prosecution," before the grand jury has even heard the case and returned an indictment or not?
BREAK TRANSCRIPT
RUSH: All of this, folks, I think is crucially important. All of this -- the foundation, the reason for all of this media coverage -- is a myth. The myth is so powerful that if there is even a hint of real evidence that contradicts it, that has got to be blown up, and whoever brings it forward has got to be blown up and done away with. We have here, I believe, a microcosm of the Democrat Party and politics. If the truth behind any of their policies is ever revealed, what happens? Whoever reveals the truth becomes a target, and the nature of the evidence and the truth is obliterated, nuked, and destroyed. It really is. This is quite a display. It's a very, very teachable moment. And that's not even to reference the emotions involved and how they are being manipulated and used in the furtherance of this myth.
Here is Steve in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, as we start on the phones. I'm glad you called, and I appreciate your patience in waiting. Hello.
CALLER: Hi, Mr. Limbaugh. Thank you for taking my call.
RUSH: You bet.
CALLER: I'm just calling. I have a thought as to why the president is either choosing to stay on vacation or is being advised to stay away from Ferguson. Can you imagine what might happen if he goes to try to calm things down and then is not received very well by the African-American community? That would be quite embarrassing to the president and I think it would actually be quite destructive to the Democrat Party if the president got booed and hissed by the African-American community.
RUSH: What leads you to think that would happen?
CALLER: Well, we've seen some of the sound bites from the people in Ferguson, that the president is not doing what he said he was going to do for the African-American community.
RUSH: Ah, ah, ah! A minor, minor, minor correction.
I think I've got the story somewhere here. It's something like 90% of the agitators and protesters are not from Ferguson. If that weren't happening, if they weren't busing in New Black Panther Party members and others from Oakland, who knows what might be going on there? This is so artificial. This whole thing is so unreal that it's not even the people of Ferguson that are making all the noise.
I mean, it's not even close. It's all outside agitators. Now, there have been signs, Steve. You're right. I've seen people in the still shots and video of the rioting and the looting, holding signs that are unflattering to Obama. We've had the New Black Panther Party president say Obama's worthless. "Why you come here and help us?" Blah, blah, blah, blah.
So it, I mean, I don't doubt that that is a calculation that the White House would be making, because every one of Obama's appearances are staged usually now in front of young, low-information college students in a controlled environment, with Obama on the campaign stage, campaigning for something, complaining about one of his own policies that the audience doesn't realize is his own policy. (Obviously. They're low-information.)
But an environment like that, they couldn't control.
So, yep. I think you may have a point.
BREAK TRANSCRIPT
RUSH: Breitbart News has a story here. The number of protesters arrested in Ferguson is 78. Only three were Ferguson residents. I mean, it's an illustration. It's not the total story. This is just arrests. But it is an illustration of just how many outside agitators have flown in there -- or driven in there, however they got there -- to further the myth.
"Fox News correspondent Steve Harrigan reported that only three of the 78 protesters arrested last night during last night's clash between the police and protesters in Ferguson were actually from the city ... He stated that there were '78 arrests, just three of them here from the town of Ferguson.' Harrigan added that there were 'a lot from Missouri, but some came from as far away as California and New York.'"
The Washington Post was unable to get these numbers, even though it was right there on Fox, and the numbers come from officials. Fox didn't make it up. The Washington Post story does not mention it 'cause, of course, it goes against the myth. You see, the myth contains many elements. But for the myth to survive, it has to be the town of Ferguson that's fed up. It has to be the town of Ferguson that can't deal with this anymore.
It has to be, "Ferguson is going to be the last place where a white cop guns down an innocent black kid! It's not gonna happen anymore. We're fed up with it, we're tired of, and it isn't gonna happen," as though it happens regularly, and Ferguson is the last straw. So a lot of people on the left and in the civil rights coalition and the Democrat Party are working overtime to further this myth.
END TRANSCRIPT
David Hunter, writing for the Casey Daily Despatch, claims that we have entered a new Bear Market. What? No increase in interest rates and still he hears the bear growling?
Hunter claims that the Bear Market is a deflationary Bear Market that is fueled/caused by the FED slowing its money printing.
Japan. After a solid first quarter, the bottom dropped out of the Japanese economy in the second quarter. Apparently, during Q1 the Japanese business bought and produced what they could to beat the tax increases in Q2. The Japanese have embarked on an orgy of Keynesian moves: deficit spending, money printing, low interest rates and propping up underperforming businesses. As a result, Japan can not rid itself of failing businesses, which distorts credit allocation.
Italy. In recession.
Germany.Ma y be in recession or very close. Spain, Portugal, Greece. Rumors of recovery have been exaggerated. Russia. Western machinations hurt the Ruble, down 20%. Economy is sagging. China. Having problems with credit, unwinding bad loans and such. Fast growth has slowed.
The US is losing the race to the bottom and the Dollar is skyrocketing again. It will hurt exports.
"The true definition of the Drive-By Media is they arrive on the scene of major breaking news and they stir up emotions to a frenzied fever pitch. They spread lies, and then, after a few hours or a few days when the real facts emerge, they're gone. They're down the road doing it again on the next story, while everybody else is left in their wake with a mess that real Americans have to clean up. And that is exactly what has happened in Ferguson, Missouri."
While the world economy stumbles, especially Europe, gold prices are again making a move. Will this be the one that breaks the grip of the FED and its minions on gold price? Only time will tell. But, a look at where we have been may be useful at this point. Here are the daily prices:
There are a number of interesting features in this graph. From the middle of March to the middle of May we see a flag formation (lower highs and slightly rising lows), followed by a week of sideways action then a sharp breakdown to 1240. Gold then began to rise and we saw a significant rise on June 20 that took gold to 1340. This was a very significant rise, not just because of its size, but because it ushered in a couple of weeks rise in gold prices producing the Golden Cross (the 50 DMA going above the 200 DMA). Around July 12, there was another attempt to drop the gold price, but the drop only went to 1300. Then began a reverse head and shoulder formation, of which we are now seeing the right shoulder's development. At this point we do not know if the intraday drop on Friday marked the low of the right shoulder or if a few more days of small drops is yet to come.
This reverse head and shoulder implies a coming move to 1400/oz.
As I noted earlier today, much of the debate about who won or lost the lingering conflict in Gaza centers on the question of whether Palestinians in Gaza are ready to shuck off the despotic and destructive rule of Hamas. The assumption is that Gazans will draw the only logical conclusion from the Islamist terrorists’ mad decision to launch a war that only increased their suffering. But as in much else that characterizes the Middle East, logic doesn’t necessarily apply here.
We’ve heard a great deal recently about the likelihood that Hamas’s weakened military state due to Israel’s successful military action must mean that the group’s hold on Gaza must be slipping. Given that Hamas has achieved none of the principle goals it stated for the conflict, including the release of terrorist prisoners and the end of the international blockade of Gaza, it stands to reason that Palestinians must be thinking seriously about replacing the movement that has ruled over them since taking power in a 2007 coup.
But despite all the talk about the imminent demise of Hamasistan, there is actually no sign whatsoever that its grip on power is slipping. The reasons for that have every thing to do with the peculiar dynamic of Palestinian politics and a basic rule of history. As the Times of Israel notes in a feature today, support for Hamas’s goals and fear of dissent provides the terror group with a strong insurance policy.
Though no one in Gaza had to like the results of the fighting, Hamas’s political stock may actually have gone up due to the perverse culture of Palestinian life. Throughout the last century Palestinians have always given the bulk of their support to whichever faction proved to be the most violent. That dynamic kept Yasir Arafat at the top of the Palestinian pyramid and has inspired the ongoing competition between Hamas and Fatah in the last generation. Since Palestinian national identity has always been inextricably linked to their war on Zionism, peacemaking has always been political poison. Instead of concentrating on development or providing services for their backers, Hamas and Fatah have both concentrated on demonstrating their belligerence, with even moderates like Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas understanding that agreeing to recognize the legitimacy of the Jewish state is simply impossible. That’s why no matter what Hamas does it appears that Gazans will blame their suffering on Israel.
As for possible dissent, it should be noted that the one demonstration held in Gaza against Hamas was met with a stern response. Those involved were executed. That is where the iron rule comes in.
Throughout history, tyrannies have only fallen when they are ready to liberalize, not when they are still prepared to spill the blood of their people. The French revolution happened during the reign of the least tyrannical of the Bourbon kings, not under that of the most bloodthirsty. The Soviet Union fell after glasnost and perestroika, not during the era of Stalin’s bloody purges that took the lives of millions.
Hamas is isolated, militarily defeated, and bankrupt. But so long as it is prepared to use its weapons to suppress possible dissent, intimidate the press, and/or to ensure that Fatah is not in a position to retake Gaza, the odds of it losing power are slim and none.
AJ adds: The reaction of the Arabs of Gaza to Hamas reminds me of the reaction of blacks in America. It is not rooted in fact or logic, but the support of people most vicious to those you do not like. If the people of Gaza rewarded Hamas according to how much good Hamas did for them, Hamas would be gone in short order. If blacks rewarded Democrats for what Democrats did to them, they would vote Republican. But, blacks reward Democrats with their votes BECAUSE THE DEMOCRATS HURT WHITE PEOPLE. Just as Arabs reward Hamas because Hamas hates more that Fatah.
By now Hillary is famous for her quote throwing Obama under the bus:
“Great nations need organizing principles,” she maintained, “and ‘Don’t do stupid stuff’ is not an organizing principle.”
True enough. Unfortunately, the Obama regime did do stupid stuff. Letting ISIS become powerful and allow Maliki to screw up Iraq was a stupid thing. Unfortunately, Hillary is just as much culpable as O'Bungle. A sane and capable US President now would have to re-occupy Iraq to make sure that all parties get an even break and that ISIS is annihilated. But, Obama is neither sane, nor loyal to the United States and its interests.
Overall, the most recent sanctions from the US and EU on Russia
are the toughest to date. But the sanctions imposed by the EU differ in many
respects from those that Obama has authorized. Rather than getting into a
debate of what effects the sanctions might have, let’s look at what the ones in
place thus far have already done.
Since January 1, 2014, the Russian ruble has depreciated by almost
10% against the US dollar. And more importantly, the countries that are
strategically aligned with the Russians, such as Kazakhstan, have seen their
currencies suffer a similar fate.
Is a depreciating currency bad?
Not if you’re an exporting nation, such as Kazakhstan, which is
the world’s largest producer of uranium.
Kazakhstan’s currency, the tenge, has depreciated at twice the
Russian ruble’s rate, down by almost 20% since January. This past quarter, the
Kazakhs have produced almost 15 million pounds of uranium and are on target to
produce just under 60 million pounds for the year. That’s almost 40% of the
world’s primary uranium production.
Having a currency that has depreciated that much means the Kazakhs
are now making almost 20% more for every pound of uranium they sell. Who
controls all of the Kazakh uranium production? Mother Russia, that’s who.
So how does this affect America? In a very serious way, which will
have serious, long-term, negative effects.
It’s not just I who thinks this. Former Texas Congressman Ron Paul
had this to say:
The US government’s decision to
apply more sanctions on Russia is a grave mistake and will only escalate an
already tense situation, ultimately harming the US economy itself. While the
effect of sanctions on the dollar may not be appreciated in the short term, in
the long run these sanctions are just another step toward the dollar’s eventual
demise as the world’s reserve currency.
How are the sanctions already hitting home? Well, for example, one
in every five American homes is powered by nuclear energy, and almost half of
that derives from Russia-controlled uranium mines. 10% of all homes in the US
depend on nuclear energy that gets its feedstock—uranium—via Russia or a close
ally.
And that’s not about to change.
There is no new mine or existing producing uranium mine in America
today that can make a decent profit at current spot uranium prices of US$28.75
per pound. To make matters worse, Obama and his administration have been
flooding the domestic market with sales of uranium from the Department of
Energy stockpiles. Why is the DoE selling off its inventory? Here’s our take on the subject in detail, but essentially
the DOE is selling uranium into the market to raise money to fix past problems.
To accomplish that, the DoE isn’t just sacrificing current uranium
mines, but also most of the future US deposits. I’ll explain why.
The absolute most difficult mine to put into production is a
uranium mine. The permitting hurdles are much higher and more difficult than
for any other metal, such as copper, gold, and iron. Before a mine gets to the
production stage, it takes about 10 years to develop the asset, obtain all
permits, and then construct the mine. Fewer than 1 in 1,000 projects ever
becomes an economic mine.
Because the uranium sector has been so beaten down, most US
producers have had to hedge a portion of their production to utilities to get
money and lock in a price for a portion of future production.
Unfortunately, the current underfeeding market means the Russians
can reprocess five times more uranium, from tails instead of mines, for
essentially no cost increase. Uranium has become supercharged because of the
depreciating Russian and Kazakh currencies, combined with Obama’s genius move
of dumping DoE’s uranium into a historically low price market. Net result:
producers are essentially depleting their US domestic permitted uranium
reserves for no economic benefit.
The Cure for Low Prices Is Low Prices
The Russians have received a
pleasant reward from the sanctions—a devalued currency which now makes their
uranium exports more profitable. Why does this matter to Americans?
Eventually, the underfeeding uranium market will transition to
overfeeding, which will cause a big spike in the uranium spot price, as it
always has in the past. The current US production is around 4 million pounds of
uranium annually, which is almost 15 times less than what Kazakhstan produces
in a year.
Current US producers are being forced to deplete their reserves at
historic lows if they’re hedged. And, also because of uneconomic current
prices, very few new projects are moving forward in the US.
At some point, America will be squeezed for uranium, as it is the
world’s largest consumer, and it currently imports 90% of what it consumes
annually.
With only modest domestic production and the drawdown of DoE
stockpiles, where will the metal come from? Russia and Russian-influenced
sources. When overfeeding hits and the spot price turns around, US producers
that have remained unhedged will benefit. Those that have mines which are
built, permitted, and in a position to produce uranium will return significant
gains for shareholders.
In an article, the FT quotes Fisher that slower growth and lower worker participation are conditions that are keeping the FED from raising interest rates. However, the lower interest rates allow businesses to borrow to buy back their shares (thus increasing their pay and leadership compensation). This and the paring down of the work force allowed businesses to maintain or increase profit, but this did very little for the working stiffs. Also, the lawless behavior of the Obama regime contributes to the higher unemployment. The regime has put into effect thousands of regs that reduce productivity and refused to get an OK from Congress as required by law. The worst example is the regime's insistence on phasing out of the use of cheap coal allegedly to combat the nonexistent global warming.
Yellen is a Keynesian and beholden to Obama for her job. She will not allow rates to rise until after the Fall election, so the regime won't be blamed for a drop in stock prices.
Russia has sent its troops back to their bases. Shelling, bombing and rocketing of Donetsk continues. Is this a final retreat of Russia or a strategic regrouping. The invasion did not occur as predicted by me and with the targeting info given to the Ukrainian govt by the Obama regime, Donetsk is in peril.
Zerohedge documents the extent to which other countries have taken steps to stop using the US Dollar. First and foremost is the Russo-Chinese agreement to conduct trade in their own currencies instead of US Dollars. This follows agreements between China, the UK and Switzerland to do currency swaps for trading purposes. Turkey is mulling the same thing. Russian oligarchs have shifted their money from Europe to Hong Kong. According to Russia's Central Bank"... the agreement will serve as an additional instrument for ensuring international financial stability.
Also, it will offer the possibility to obtain liquidity in critical
situations.
“The agreement will stimulate further development of
direct trade in yuan and rubles on the domestic foreign exchange markets of
Russia and China,” the Russian regulator said.
Currently, over 75 percent of payments in Russia-China trade
settlements are made in US dollars, according to Rossiyskaya Gazeta
newspaper."
Second Front: Islam vs US. Thanks to the maladministration of Barak Hussein Obama, Iraq has been left in a hole to fend for itself. By announcing that the US would pick up and run, Barak Hussein served notice that all the Islamists had to do was wait a while and victory would be theirs. Thus, ISIS could form an alliance with Iraq's Sunnis and overrun almost half of the country. They will not stop there. They are busy attacking the Kurds and after that they will run over the rest of Iraq. Their plans call for incorporating Lebanon and Jordan and then Saudi Arabia. Obviously, they will threaten the West's oil supply as well as the Western countries. ISIS map and intentions:
Third Front: Ukraine. It still appears that Russia will intervene directly, but the Russians from Eastern Ukraine are recruiting "volunteers" from Russia. The sanctions against Russia have drawn counter sanction: a ban on food imports from the West for one year. Cost: 1.2 Trillion dollars.
Other Fronts are opening up as Barak Hussein pays attention to his putting.
It is predictable as clockwork: when Democrats run the show, all He** breaks loose. First, they neglect defense and our capabilities. Second, they talk like pansies (after they talked retreat and defeat) and carry a wet noodle. 3. When our opponents and just some genuine bad actors begin to push (feeling free to do so in light of weakness on our part) then the Dems take us to war.
1. The Ukraine. Having allowed Soros and his ilk to overthrow a duly elected Ukrainian President, the Obama regime continues its anti-Russian policy. Have you wondered how come the Ukrainian Army and Air Force all of a sudden are crushing the insurgents? The New York Times has given it away: the US is providing the Ukrainian Army and Air Force with targeting data. I would not be surprised to learn that US spy planes have been flying over the Ukraine gathering intelligence for the Kiev regime. The Russians showed their hand: cut off food exports into Russia and cut dependence on the West. Russian bombers penetrated US air space some 6 times during last week.
President Putin has this weekend to help the insurgents or they are done. I predict the invasion for Saturday or Sunday dawn.
2. Israel and Gaza. The rockets are flying again as Hamas did not renew the cease fire. Why should they? A fresh batch of rockets is ready to fly. Will Hizbeallah step in? They have far more rockets than Hamas.
3. China has occupied the Spratley Island and is building light houses on them.
4. Iraq. US warplanes are in the air. Doing a half-hearted effort to be sure, but they are there.
5. Liberia is reeling under the Ebola epidemic and is unable to stop it. King Obama has ordered the US spend $30B on it.
6. Homeland Security has plans to seize power if Ebola shows up in the US.
7. Inovio is going to have a show and tell Monday morning to clue us in what is happening. An army of shorts bashes the company on the Inovio discussion site.
Hamas operatives complain that "their" God changes the flight of rockets in mid air.
Israel Today translated a report from a Hebrew-language news site, which noted the Iron Dome battery failed three times to intercept an incoming rocket headed toward Tel Aviv last week.
The commander recalled: “A missile was fired from Gaza. Iron Dome precisely calculated [its trajectory]. We know where these missiles are going to land down to a radius of 200 meters. This particular missile was going to hit either the Azrieli Towers, the Kirya (Israel’s equivalent of the Pentagon) or [a central Tel Aviv railway station]. Hundreds could have died.
“We fired the first [interceptor]. It missed. Second [interceptor]. It missed. This is very rare. I was in shock. At this point we had just four seconds until the missile lands. We had already notified emergency services to converge on the target location and had warned of a mass-casualty incident.
“Suddenly, Iron Dome (which calculates wind speeds, among other things) shows a major wind coming from the east, a strong wind that … sends the missile into the sea. We were all stunned. I stood up and shouted, ‘There is a God!’
“I witnessed this miracle with my own eyes. It was not told or reported to me. I saw the hand of God send that missile into the sea.”
Read more at http://www.wnd.com/2014/08/hand-of-god-sent-missile-into-sea/#4XcR2iMRI0qodJ8C.99
The latest report is that Donetsk is now surrounded and cut off from the East and Luhansk is also under assault. The Russians? Having war games and maneuvering. Russian travelers are being called home. Russian troop strength is being increased at the border and the Polish are reporting that Russian troops will soon invade to act as "Peace keepers." President Putin has little time to act - if he wants to act. The Ukrainian Army now has the upper hand and is not slowing down even as some units are defecting and crossing over into Russia.
The dot is where HN17 went down. The horizontal black line is 25 miles.
That is why the Obama regime is importing the virus to American territory. They do this by bringing in actual people who are infected and also by opening the border to anyone who wants to come in. The "thinking" of the regime is that if Ebola were to ravage the US then we would act to eradicate it. Of course we could. There are companies with vaccines against Ebola, but these companies have to run the gauntlet of two three years of human studies and will have to spend hundreds of millions to comply with the regs of the Food and Delay Administration.
Illegal aliens are sent to areas where Democrats need votes. The President, by failing to enforce the laws, has become the biggest lawbreaker in the land. He is no longer fit for office.
Let's put it this way: Russia appears to have the capability to invade Ukraine any time it wishes. The forces are in place, the tanks are gassed up, the only thing apparently missing is the "Go" code from Vladimir Putin. And that could come this weekend, next weekemd - or never.
James Miller, writing in The Daily Beast, thinks all the signs point to an invasion this weekend:
Right now Russia is moving troops, armor, and advanced antiaircraft missiles toward the border with Ukraine. In the last 48 hours, dozens of videos have been uploaded to social-media sites that show Russian armor very close to the border, many of them confirmed to be within mere kilometers of Ukraine.
On Thursday, my team at The Interpreterdefinitively geolocated Russian armor only 2,000 meters (and closing) from the border and a Buk, the same type of missile that likely took down Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, only a few hours from being within range of Ukraine’s air force. Columns of tanks, marked with the same painted numbers and flat, pale-green paint we’ve seen in Ukraine since (at least) June 20th, were spotted moving en masse toward a key border crossing. Some Ukrainian journalists are reporting that at least some of this armor has already crossed the border.
Russia’s helicopters held ground-fire exercises Friday on the border between Russia’s Rostov region and Ukraine’s Donetsk region. The head of Russia’s airborne units, which played a critical role in the conquering of Crimea, has pledged to expand operations beyond the boundaries of Russia (tanks marked with the insignia of Russian Airborne forces were captured by Ukrainian troops just yesterday). The Ukrainian government now says that its military has detected even more advanced antiaircraft batteries lined up on its border.
There is now significant evidence that Russia is openly supporting the separatists militarily and many experts now believe that Russia could invade and beat back the Ukrainian anti-terror operation.
An open war between Ukraine and Russia may have already begun. In the last 24 hours, there are reports of cross-border shelling in new locations and 17 new Grad rocket batteries digging in on the Russian side of the border, but within range of the Ukrainian military’s front lines. This is even more concerning when it is put into context. In the last two days, two different Ukrainian military convoys have been destroyed by Grad rockets south of the MH17 crash site, in Shakhtyorsk and near Torez. Russian paratroopers have even taken pictures with the bodies of the Ukrainian soldiers and have posted them to social networks (this isn’t the only time Russian soldiers have posted pictures from inside Ukraine, which has caused the Russian government to discuss banning their soldiers from posting to social media).
Miller points to reports in social media of large numbers of armor either already in Ukraine or very close to the border. But the big question is does Russia really need to invade?
This is troubling for the near term:
Is this just saber rattling? It’s possible. Russia has been poised to invade Ukraine on multiple occasions and it has not happened yet. But in the weeks before and after the downing of MH17, thousands of “tourists” driving tanks and armored vehicles that appear to be from Russian military stockpiles have crossed the border and joined the fight against the fledgling Ukrainian government. Even if Russia does not formally invade, how much of this equipment will not-so-quietly slip across the border and reinforce an insurgency which has already cost so many civilian lives?
The latest round of sanctions may have convinced Putin that he may as well go all the way in supporting the separatists since western Europe has done about as much as it can in sanctioning Moscow without ruining their own economies. And recent polls in Russia show Putin getting massive approval from the people.
At this point, it may not be a question of "if" but rather "when."
AJ adds: If Russia invades, the Ukrainians only have themselves to blame. Poroshenko's "Peace Plan" consisted of 'surrender or die' and was rightfully rejected by Russians in Eastern Ukraine. When a government bombs and shells its citizens, it means divorce.
Now that the Higgs Boson has been demonstrated, where does that leave Physics? After all, the Media told us that demonstrating the "God particle", i.e. the Higgs boson, would led to a quantum increase in knowledge. But, it did not. Some Physicist calculated that we now understand 4.9% of the Universe. The general theory predicts that neutrinos have no mass. But, they do. And, while 26.8% on the Universe is composed of dark matter and 68.3% consists of dark energy, neither can be demonstrated by today's tech. Far worse is the understanding in theoretical Physics. The String Theory is not understood even by Physicists and won't be anytime soon.
At any rate, he's gotta go. He said he can't guarantee an outcome. Father killed by a cop. So he's the latest challenge to the myth. He was minding his own business. So he's come out and said (summarized), "Okay, you want to get rid of me? You gotta have the governor do it. The governor's the guy you have to go to." Grab sound bite 25. Here's Bob... He might pronounce it McCull-lock. I'm not sure. I haven't heard his name pronounced. It's either McCull-luh or McCull-lock.
If the truth behind any of their policies is ever revealed, what happens? Whoever reveals the truth becomes a target, and the nature of the evidence and the truth is obliterated, nuked, and destroyed. It really is. This is quite a display. It's a very, very teachable moment. And that's not even to reference the emotions involved and how they are being manipulated and used in the furtherance of this myth.
08.11.2014 - 6:10 PM 
