Friday, August 29, 2014

Kissinger: settle Ukraine by starting at the end.

Yours truly had predicted that Russia would invade the Ukraine on Aug 8-9, but I was off by 10 days. Russian  troops are now fighting in the Ukraine, albeit they are on vacation.

So far, the Ukrainians have proven to be stupid and their actions have goaded the Russians into more and more belligerent actions. It is time to listen to a former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/henry-kissinger-to-settle-the-ukraine-crisis-start-at-the-end/2014/03/05/46dad868-a496-11e3-8466-d34c451760b9_story.html

Kissinger reminds us of  the ties between Russia and the Ukraine and suggests that the dispute requires that the end results and goals to be considered. If the contention is to be peacefully resolved, a state of mutually unsatisfactory goals must be achieved. Mr K list them as:

"1. Ukraine should have the right to choose freely its economic and political associations, including with Europe.

2. Ukraine should not join NATO, a position I took seven years ago, when it last came up.

3. Ukraine should be free to create any government compatible with the expressed will of its people. Wise Ukrainian leaders would then opt for a policy of reconciliation between the various parts of their country. Internationally, they should pursue a posture comparable to that of Finland. That nation leaves no doubt about its fierce independence and cooperates with the West in most fields but carefully avoids institutional hostility toward Russia.

4. It is incompatible with the rules of the existing world order for Russia to annex Crimea. But it should be possible to put Crimea’s relationship to Ukraine on a less fraught basis. To that end, Russia would recognize Ukraine’s sovereignty over Crimea. Ukraine should reinforce Crimea’s autonomy in elections held in the presence of international observers. The process would include removing any ambiguities about the status of the Black Sea Fleet at Sevastopol.
These are principles, not prescriptions. People familiar with the region will know that not all of them will be palatable to all parties. The test is not absolute satisfaction but balanced dissatisfaction. If some solution based on these or comparable elements is not achieved, the drift toward confrontation will accelerate. The time for that will come soon enough."

Mr K forgets a couple of things:

1. Russia will not give up the Crimea.
2. The Ukrainian govt is not elected by the entire people of Ukraine. Its current leaders are not merely hostile to Russia, they are suicidal. Ukrainians are requesting membership in NATO, a sure sign of fatal instability. Should the request be granted, it will initiate a war between NATO and Russia, fought on Ukrainian soil with weapons of mass destruction. Let's hope that some reasonable people will come forward in the Ukraine who are able to step back and devise a workable solution.

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