Sunday, December 28, 2014

A most dangerous economic recovery.

The US has finally entered the fast economic recovery phase a lot of people (myself included) have been hoping. The last GDP figure was a 5.1% growth.


1. The first question is then WHY? And the answer is that the fast growth is due to the drop in fuel costs which is acting as a stimulus.


2. The second question is WHY is this dangerous? The answer to that one is the circumstances that accompany the drop in the price of oil.


First, the world regards this as collusion between Saudi Arabia and the United States.


3. Why would the Saudis implement the wishes of the Obungle Admin? The Saudies count the number of players low oil prices will hurt. The first group is American oil producers that depend on oil prices of $80/bbl to make money on frakking. These people will go bankrupt if low prices continue. In a way the Saudis are engaged in classical monopoly price-fixing. Once they put their competitors out of usiness, the Saudis can once again dictate prices. The Russians and Iranians are also hurt by the low prices. Russia is allied with Syria ( a Shiite enemy of the Saudis) and Iran, of course, is the arch competitor in religious Islam.


Why would the Obama regime favor low priced oil when it forbids drilling on federal lands? The Obama regime favors high oil prices because they figure it will push high-priced cars that are more efficient. The Obama regime also wants the American oil companies to go bankrupt.


4. Why is this dangerous? The losers of this trade (Russia and Iran) will not take kindly to losing revenue. The Iranians can do things directly, such as blocking the Strait of Hormuz. The Russians are already mad at us and are plotting to make life difficult. Russia and China can initiate economic and financial  measures, while Russia can initiate military measures.


Brezhnev was promised that if the Soviet Union voluntarily withdrew from the Warsaw pact  countries, NATO would respect their neutrality. Instead, NATO has expanded all the way to the Russian border. This opens the way for all sorts of Russian retaliation.

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