Flirting with a recession.

The following graph from Doomberg is interpreted that a reading below 50 means we are in a recession. We are nearing that point;

Greece zags.

PM Tsipras has removed Varoufakis as the lead negotiator and appointed three new people to carry the load. Does that mean that Greece will stay in the Euro sphere? Is it too little too late? The Markets are responding as if people believe that a deal can be reached.

Stephanie Rawlins-Blake: what did she say?

Here is the transcription of her news conference:

"I've made it very clear that I, um, work with the police and instructed them to do everything that they could to make sure that the protesters were able to exercise their, uh, right to free speech.  It's a very delicate balancing act because while we, uh, try to make that they were protected from the cars and the other, y'know, things that were going on. We also gave those who wished to destroy, space to do that as well.

Harf, harf, harf. Whatever she meant, it did not work.

From the Moscow Times

Has Putin Played All His Cards in Ukraine?

• By Vladimir Frolov
• Apr. 27 2015 19:16
• Last edited 19:17

Radu Sigheti / Reuters

The Kremlin is desperately seeking Western help, even calling upon U.S. President Obama to join the Normandy format, to pressure Kiev to reintegrate the separatist republics into a federalized Ukraine.

Moscow is worried that Kiev is moving to jettison the separatist-controlled parts of the Donbass into a stable frozen conflict along the lines of the self-proclaimed republic of Transdnestr.
Ukraine has conditioned the implementation of the political aspects of the Minsk II agreement (the special status and local autonomy, resumption of social services) with de facto Russian withdrawal, restoration of Ukrainian sovereignty and free elections under the Ukrainian law.
This derails the Russian plan to impose a confederal arrangement on Ukraine with a special status for Russian proxies, forcing Moscow to violate its pledge under Minsk II to restore Ukrainian control over the border by the end of 2015. This leaves Western sanctions on Russia in place.

Moscow's strategy is to enlist the West in blaming Kiev for derailing Minsk II and help steer the EU sanctions review in June in Russia's favor. In parallel, Moscow continues to apply the only leverage it now has over Kiev — the threat of a new military offensive by the separatists. Hence the surge in the train-and-equip program in eastern Ukraine.

The surge does not give the separatists the capability to seize Mariupol or large urban areas, but is enough to keep the fighting at slow-boiling temperatures to get Western attention. The bet is that the risk of renewed fighting would force the West to twist Kiev's arm into accepting Russia's vision of the settlement.

Kiev's bet is that the prospect of a stable frozen conflict where Russia foots the bill for the Donbass, while sanctions stay in place, would force Moscow to accept Kiev's terms for its reintegration into Ukraine with Russia's complete withdrawal.

Putin is more likely to recognize the separatist republics' independence, which he said last week would depend on the facts on the ground. This could be quickly arranged by the separatists. They are already calling for a new referendum, claiming that a majority would endorse independence.
It may be Putin's only viable exit strategy, allowing him to cover up a strategic defeat with a tactical victory.

It would still be a bargain for Ukraine and the West. The question is not whether Ukraine will be partitioned, it already is, but how much of Ukraine will be left free.

AJ ADDS: The U.S. has learned that there is no substitute for victory. As long as Russia continues to spare the Ukraine the full brunt of Russian might, there will be a costly stalemate. On the other hand, if the Ukraine refuses to go to the federated structure demanded by the Separatists and Russia, then Ukraine has either to fight or abandon Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts (Provinces). By now, the industrial might of the region has ben seriously degraded so it might be palatable just to give up the two provinces. The Separatists want their whole provinces though.

The machinations of the Clinton crime family.

By now most everyone (except a low information voter) has heard about the activities of the Clinton crime family. To wit, when Bill was Governor in Arkansas, money was passed to Hillary disguised as cattle futures and when Hillary was Secretary of State (and a potential Presidential candidate), money was passed to Bill in form of speaker fees. In addition, various governments and individuals passed millions of dollars to the Clinton Foundation, which funnels 85% of the money into the Private accounts of the Clintons. Even their daughter Chelsea is now part of this. Recently, the Governor of Virginia and his wife were convicted of accepting a few gifts. The Clinton's take? Between 150-300 MILLION Dollars. Charles Krauthammer remarked that the most maddening part of this is that the Clintons expect to get away with this.


The interesting thing is the speculation as to why the Liberal Press is treating the Clintons as if they were Republicans.


1. Theory #1 is that the Liberal Press is afraid that Hillary will lose the election and a Republican President would undo Obama's steps toward a Leftist country.


2. Theory #2 is that it is Obama who wants Elizabeth Warren to become President to preserve and expand Obama's moves toward remaking America as a third world Marxist country.


3. Finally, theory #3 presumes that it is Bill Clinton who is sabotaging Hillary, so when her political ambitions are extinguished he can divorce her.


Stay tuned.

Qui custodiet ipsos custodes?

An old Latin phrase from the Poet Juvenal that means: who watches the watchers. This is particularly important in the face of the gross violations of judiciary and police procedures that are coming to light in Wisconsin. This is not the first time Democrats refused to accept the idea that Republicans can win elections. It began with the Nightriders when Democrats organized possies to intimidate Republicans in the South from voting. We saw it in Texas, where a rogue Prosecutor from Austin decided to prosecute Tom Delay for orchestrating a Republican win in the State legislature. Texas Democrats in Austin even indicted the Republican Governor for exercising his powers. But, all these pail in comparison to atrocities committed in Wisconsin.





The State has been one of the two States that fell under 'Progressive' domination, the other being California. When Scott Walker ( a mildly Conservative Republican) got elected Governor the State's 'Progressives' went into action using the State's laws and the position of the DA in Milwaukee County to reverse the election.


Using the infamous 'John Doe' law, the police broke down doors in the middle of the night, confiscated computers and cell phones, forbade the targets to have legal representation or even tell anyone what happened to them. Their crimes? They voted for Scott Walker or organized to support his efforts. Finally, some of the victims sought further judiciary review and the cases are going up to the Supreme Court:
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/417207/politicized-prosecution-run-amok-wisconsin-rich-lowry

 

 

Why Greece is going to default.

Socialism has failed in Greece because the government has finally ran out of other people's money. Basically, it is as simple as that.

Greece's lenders insist that Greece continue to reduce the cockamamie Leftist ideas governing the country: the large government sector of parasitic beaurocracy,  the inability of business to reduce labor costs, the restructuring of the pension system. The problem is that the government that was elected favors all these things, so there is an impasse between the creditors and the Greek government.

Greece runs out of gimmicks by next month. Having raided the pension system the Greek govt is trying to find other suckers to waste money: Russia (that can't) and the US (because Obama loves Leftists and Islamists). Failing to find other suckers, the jig is up. The question is what will happen WHEN Greece defaults rather than IF.

Finances: crunching the numbers.

With shorts, ETFs and derivatives, the financial world and its state can be distorted. But, sooner or later, the price is to be paid for the criminal activity of the manipulators. Take the example of the manipulation of the Swiss Frank. The Swiss National Bank had pegged the value of the Frank as 1.2 Euros and kept buying Euros and Dollars to keep it that way. Then in January, the Bank could no longer sustain the illusion and gave up. So, what happened? When the dust settled, the SNB had lost $50B, 60% of its capital and 8% of the Swiss GDP. There is a reason why countries had forbidden their national banks to speculate.

That's not all. As of now there are 180M Swiss Frank's worth of 10 year bonds with a negative yield. Ten year's worth of investment has gone up in smoke.

Since the abandoning of the Gold Standard, there has been a 2000% increase in the money supply and the inflation. People are living on borrowed money.

The US is not the only country struggling with low productivity and deficit spending. The UK has a deficit of 5.9% and its debt had gone from 64% to 93% of the GDP.

Because people and institutions can not earn income on safe investments in bonds, they are steered into stocks creating bubbles. The NASDAQ had a P/E of 150 in 2000 and then lost 80% of its value in the following crash. Stocks are now overvalued and heading for a crash. Yet, the Central and Bouillon banks conspire to keep the price of silver below the cost of mining it. The same with gold.

India and China bought up the equivalent of 100% of the gold mined in Q1 and their interest has not slackened. The manipulation of gold and silver prices not only hurts these miners, but also other commodities. These crimes will also be costly.

Revisiting the gold price.

The Middle East is on fire, yet gold prices are falling again. Larry Edelson maintains that what is driving the price of gold is the WAR CYCLES. He also  predicts that gold will fall to 900 (and oil to $25/bbl) and that big gold companies will go bankrupt before prices can recover.


IMHO, gold price is now controlled by the bouillon banks and the FED, using the 100 to one ratio of paper gold to metal sales. Thus, it is the price of the US Dollar that predominates. As the Dollar surges, gold is being suppressed and it is easier.


The US Dollar continues to increase in anticipation of a rate rise. But, talk of a US slowdown (including the "R" word) can delay the rate rise in the US and possibly usher in QEIV. And if reports from the Ukraine are correct, the war cycles there are about to heat up. In which case Larry will report that the cycles have flipped.

Ukraine: Apokalypsos soon?

If you have been following Ukrainian news, this is what you read:


1. President Poroshenko has proudly shown off the new European arms the Ukrainians have gotten from Western countries;


2. He has disclosed plans of Ukraine building defensive lines in anticipation of resuming hostilities;


3. Ukraine is bankrupt and lives on Western loans;


4. Efforts to implement laws on autonomy have virtually ceased;


5. The front by Mariupol is heating up;


6. Ukraine plans to increase its armed forces to 250,000. To do this, Ukraine is getting trainers (including Americans);


7. Russia has again put 60,000 troops on alert;


8. Ukrainian Rebs in the East expect hostilities to resume between April 12 and May 7;


9. Ukraine signed a military pact with NATO;


10. And Poland floated the idea of recreating the Iron Curtain this time on its Eastern border.