Tuesday, January 5, 2010

Copper: the canary in the inflation mine.

Copper, January 2010


I remember when I used the copper price as a predictor of a breakout of the DOW from the March lows last year. This time, copper is signalling the coming of inflation. While, the regime believes that it can contain inflation by manipulating the zombie banks, the price of copper says otherwise. At the same time, we see the US dollar ending its rally and begin dropping again. The key indicator now is the 50 DMA. When that breaks its upward move, the dollar will begin another slide.


 US dollar. Jam 2010.


A third indicator is the S&P 500. Note that during the rally of November, the S&P actually flattened out toward the middle of the month as the dollar rallied. As the dollar hit top on Dec 21, the S&P 500 turned slightly positive once again. The Stock Market is reaching a possible top even if the dollar begins another drop. Almost everyone is bullish, which means that they are out of money. Stock valuations are way above the standard. On the other hand, the regime is boasting of increased factory orders, a drop in new unemployed and forecast of new hiring in the Spring. For now, the S&P 500 has resumed its climb, but the Market is on shaky grounds.


 SPX hesitates in Jan 2010.

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