Sunday, March 21, 2010

Gold about to break out?







Last year August, I spotted the flag formation for gold and reported when gold broke out on the upside. Gold broke out on September 1 and went to 122x dollars an ounce. Then it formed a downward trading channel and broke out of that pattern toward the end of February. This can all be seen in the last graph; the actual plotting of the price of an ounce of gold.
From the technical standpoint, it is easier to forecast gold prices from the GLD figures. GLD is an exchange traded bouillon fund. The first graph shows GLD forming a reverse head and shoulder
in 2009 prior to its breakout. The size of the head went from 89 to 94 and the advance in actual gold price was near $250/oz.
The second figure shows GLD recently. It is again doing a reverse head and shoulder. The size of the head goes from 104 to 112, which, using the proportions from 2009, would imply an increase of over $400/oz of gold or a top gold price of $1,500/oz. This, coincidentally, is the top price for 2010 that is predicted by the Cycle Theory. So, look for GLD to hit near 120 and gold to hit $1,500/oz.
The next graph down shows the divergence between GLD and TLT (20 yr Treasuries). TLT is tracing a head and shoulder formation. Though this form is difficult to analyse, it forecasts a drop in treasury note values.
The last figure is gold price. Even that shows a reverse head and shoulder, though the right shoulder is only halfway complete.
The fundamentals are that Greece needs 20-30 billion Euros to refinance its debt and they don't have it. While, Europeans talk about bailing out Greece, it is not happening.


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