There are ways and tricks to make it appear that water flows uphill or that something defies gravity. Usually, there is a simple physical explanation. This is not to deny the possibility of miracles. One such an instance of something unusual, like water flowing uphill, is the current increase in the value of the dollar (top graph).

Why do we expect the value of the dollar to decline? Because more is being "printed" by whatever form. And this will not let up.

The next graph shows the state of Social Security. It now pays out more out than comes in. But, the deluded believe that there is a Social Security Trust Fund set aside, so it is secure, is it not? Unhappily, NO. Congress spent the money as fast as it came in and put in Treasury bills in its place. Those are simply IOUs. For a few months, the interest from the Treasury Bills will cover the cost, but not for long. In a year or so, the Treasury will have to sell Treasury bills not only to finance the deficit, but also to finance Social Security outlays. In other words, Social Security is broke, six years sooner than anticipated.

The average Democrat believes that the US can continue indefinitely with selling more Treasury Bills and live off IOUs. That belief is no longer justified. The last Treasury auction was to raise $42B. Sales were slow, so the govt had to increase the amount of interest it pays on the Treasury bills in question (5 year bills). This reduced the value of 5 year Treasury Bills by 25/32. The process of rising interest rates has begun. It will go on during inflation.

The next graph shows the latest on the 20-year Treasury Bill. Note that while the dollar began to rally, the TLT showed a head and shoulder (forecasting an upside move). This did occur and we saw an upside trading channel that lasted a short time. Yesterday and today, TLT broke out of this channel on the downside and signals that it will test the 78.5 level again, for the fourth time. So, the Treasury Bill data does not confirm the rise in the dollar.

The final graph shows the value of GLD, the Exchange-traded gold fund. GLD has successfully predicted the rise in gold prices beginning Sep 1, 2009 by describing a reverse head and shoulder pattern. GLD is once again predicting an increase in gold prices; this time twice as large as the one that occurred in 2009.

So, what is making the dollar rise? Are my fellow evangelical Christians correct that Obama is the Antichrist, who is supposed to fix the world's economy? Sorry folks. This is not yet the end times and Obama is simply an economically ignorant Leftist. But, what is driving the dollar is a "race to the bottom" by the dead beat nations of Europe and the dead beat United States. Greece is a bankrupt nation and unless it is bailed out, it will default with dire consequences for the Euro. Portuguese debt has been downgraded and Portugal will soon tell us that it needs a bailout. After that there is Italy, Ireland and Spain then England. US debt is still AAA, but in danger of being downgraded. When that happens, the Obama regime will have to start "monetizing" i.e. print Treasuries and buy it. What is happening is not that the dollar is becoming more valuable, but that it is losing its value slower than European currencies. It is now winning the race to the bottom. But, not for long. Treasury prices and yield tell the story. Gold will rise and add about $500 beginning in about 30-45 days.