There are two kinds of doomsday Sayers; those who look at events long term and those who look at things short term. Long term, the US Dollar is toast, inflation will go higher and precious metals (PMs) will end up in the stratosphere. Short term, we see a counter trend of QEII ending, markets adjusting, commodities getting clobbered along with the PMs. Ceteris paribus (all things staying the same), these are the predictions people make. All things, however, do not stay the same.
Next year is a presidential election year. No matter what the Media says, the economy is NOT GETTING BETTER. I am not going to rattle off the numbers, but housing is in the dumps, unemployment is way high and inflation is beginning to bite. A Republican House will not pass another Stimulus Bill to keep unionized State workers paying dues to the Democrat Party. The House demands cuts in the trillions and the US has exhausted its authority to legally borrow more money. The Chinese are dumping their Treasuries as are some big bond firms. Greece is again on the brink and the Euro is teetering.
Do you think the FED will stop printing money at the end of June? Do you think the Democrats will agree to cuts?
We have reached a time of maximum uncertainty and the Markets are confused. THAT IS THE SOURCE OF VOLATILITY.
I was duly reporting the wedge formations that forecast a breakout and the breakouts DID occur. On the downside. PM prices are stabilizing at 34 for silver and 1,480 for gold, but there is no clarity for direction. As for the miners, they still are being sold off.
There are some true bargains out there.
As for the sudden, apparent switch in the Obama policy on drilling, this is phony. Lifting the drilling moratorium means nothing. EPA can still block things, so the policy is designed to shift blame to EPA and away from Obungle.
Wednesday, May 18, 2011
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