Thursday, September 29, 2011

Gold correction nearing end?



There are a number of questions re gold that we need to answer now. Perhaps, the most important one is: 1. is the correction over? I have used the graph of GLD as well as gold itself to try to answer this question.


GLD, when plotted on a weekly basis shows a very nice straight line vs its 30 week moving average. The value of GLD is pretty close to the moving avg, though the moving avg shows an upward displacement. The MACD tells us a slightly different story. Following a drop, the MACD takes 2-3 weeks to turn positive again. Next week may be the low point of the MACD.


Interestingly, the 30 day moving average of gold shows almost the exact pattern.


We may then conclude that the gold price is near the bottom in this correction, though a slight drop may yet occur.


There is another question that we might ask, though we as yet can not answer. Is gold price entering a steeper rise? Or put it another way, will we follow up the last peak with another peak that will occur at the same elevated rate as the last peak? If so, the next peak in gold may take it to 2,200 to 2,500. If that happens then the gold mania will occur in 2012.

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