Friday, August 17, 2012

Is Spain to ask for a bailout?

The rumor is that Spain is going to ask officially for a bailout on Monday, the twentieth. Ten year Spanish bond rate went down today to %6.443, down 0.081.

What is it like to do business in Spain today? Well, the unemployment is 25%, 50% among the youth. Spain's commercial real estate market has come to a screeching halt, going from 58 transactions in Q1 to 3 transactions in Q2. It may be better in Italy that went from 56 transactions in Q1 to 2 transactions in Q2.

The rumor is that the ECB will buy up short term Spanish bonds and leave the long term bonds alone. This would be a form of QE for Spain. Another rumor is that Central Banks are planning co-ordinated efforts to stimulate economies.

Let's remember that our FED does not need to print more money, the banks will do it. It is known as the "multiplication factor." Banks can use their reserves and loan out 10X as much money. All they need is an OK from the FED, which means Helicopter Ben. The FOMC does not control what the FED does. Their vote is merely advisory and Helicopter Ben will decide.

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