Saturday, January 5, 2013

Grand Deceptions.

1. The Deficit misdirection.

The Democrats in general and Obama in particular want to blame the tax cuts for the Deficit and the enormous explosion in the National Debt. Here is what Obama said about the "fiscal cliff" compromise:

"A central promise of my campaign for President was to change the tax code that was too skewed towards the wealthy at the expense of working middle-class Americans. Tonight we've done that. Thanks to the votes of Democrats and Republicans in Congress, I will sign a law that raises taxes on the wealthiest 2 percent of Americans while preventing a middle-class tax hike that could have sent the economy back into recession and obviously had a severe impact on families all across America."

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2013/01/obamas-statement-on-fiscal-cliff-deal-85662.html#ixzz2H5nPIrB6

Here is the truth: Forty seven percent of American earners pay no federal income tax at all. So, the goal of Obama (like the goal of all other Socialists) is to tax away the earnings of the high earners. The deficit grew by a trillion annually, because of the stimulus program. The Senate made that increase permanent by refusing to pass a budget. Instead of a Budget, the govt operates on a Continued Resolution plus a built-in increase.

2. The FOMC had published some notes from the Dec meeting. The notes mentioned a possible "EXIT STRATEGY" from buying bonds. The fact is that there is no exit strategy. The whole thing was an attempt to increase the value of the US Dollar and drop gold prices. Gold prices did indeed drop untill people realized that the notes were merely idle speculation not policy. Here is an article on the Notes and comments:

http://mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=455485&cust=mam

Here is perhaps the pragraph that gave rise to the misconception that QE would ease:

"The minutes of the December 11-12, 2012 FOMC meeting showed heavy debate about quantitative easing. On the economy, participants saw the economy growing about as previously expected although jobs growth was a little better. However, various members were concerned about monitoring quantitative easing. Some saw QE4 as complicating the Fed's exit strategy from extremely loose monetary policy. FOMC participants indicated that some of the quantitative easing programs should end before the close of 2013. This could mean the end of Treasury purchases or mortgage-backed securities sooner than believed if this view takes hold. It was noted that additional asset purchases could create difficulties. The worry is that inflation and/or inflation expectations could rise."

3. The Merkel statement on the debt crisis.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced that the worst part of the debt crisis is over. Is that right? Well, except for the Greek and Spanish Banks that will need a bailout again, that is.

4. Media hosannas about the improving jobs picture: 155,000 hires in December 2012. How good is that number? Well, we need 300,000 just to keep even. Even the 155,000 number is swelled by Hurricane Sandy hires and Christmas retail jobs. The work force is still shrinking.

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