Wednesday, February 20, 2013

What about inflation?

After Seeking Alpha published an article that US inflation is a myth (and that the prospect of hyperinflation is zero), I began to suspect that Alpha is up to its usual tricks of dishing out Obama regime propaganda. The regime is out to convince the public that:

a) the gold is still in the US vaults - no problem, move along and
b) that inflation is tame and we can continue with the insane money printing.

In order to continue with its scheme of price suppression, the FED needs to convince everyone that everything is OK, that the gold is there and its ownership (via athentication) is as expected. The quickest and clearest way to assure us would have been to return the 1,500 tons of German gold as requested by the German govt. The FED failed to do so and devised a scheme  which will take several years if the return will actually happen. This raised suspicions that the gold is not there that it has been used in price suppression schemes and had been rented out and is gone (to China most likely). So, the FED decided to pull a propaganda stunt. The FED released an "audit" of America's gold reserves. The "audit" is causing more anxiety than it resolves. First, it is not an audit, but a report. What would an audit be like? It would have to verify every single gold bar, its authenticity, number and that it is really gold, as well as the history of ownership. That is an audit. What is in the report? It is a Treasury report of what is supposed to be there and only in the Federal Reserve Banks; in otherwise 5% of the gold and nothing said about the 95% which is not supposed to be at Federal Reserve Banks but at other locations. VERY UNCONVINCING.

How about inflation?

The BLS had changed the rules on reporting the numbers. According to current rules there is virtually no inflation:



Isn't that nice? We do not have to worry about COLAs for Soc Sec or govt retirees and can print Treasuries without regard to the effects of inflation.

Wait a minute though? Have you been to a grocery store lately, or gassed up your car? Oh yes, says the BLS, those things are not counted, because they are too volatile. The thing is though, that the rest of the inflation statistics are not hard data either, but numbers estimated according to new rules.

So, what would inflation look like acc to 1990 rules?



Here is the inflation data plotted according to 1980 rules:

The divergence is rather clear. Social Security payments have already been revised according to new rules that permit our own version of austerity. The government knows that if we had to pay interest on the $17T we owe at normal interest rates, it would cover over 80% of the govt revenue and no amount of tinkering with the tax code could cover it up.

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