Monday, April 1, 2013

Cyprus: the aftermath.

Why do people worry about Cypress?

Cypress decided to make finances and financial products their basic industry so that the E90B deposit in Cypress banks was 5x their GDP. Forty five percent of the Cypriot economy depended on financials. How much of this will survive is a question on everyone's mind.

Current estimates put the drop in Cypriot economy at 10%, but I think that is an optimistic estimate. Moody's Senior Credit Officer Sarah Carlson wrote in a note. "The potentially irreparable damage to the country's current drivers of economic growth leaves its ability to sustain its current debt highly in doubt."

It is like planes staked up to land: Slovenija is waiting for its bailout, then Ireland. Italy is in limbo and so is Spain.

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