Russian and German diasporas.

There is a point made by Richard Cohen:


http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/richard-cohen-a-putin-affiliate-evokes-hitler-the-west-should-be-worried/2014/04/21/ddbd3794-c980-11e3-95f7-7ecdde72d2ea_story.html


the point is that maybe if Hitler stopped with reuniting the Germanic lands under one government (a task NOT finished by Bismark), he would be remembered as a great statesman. Cohen reminds us that Hitler began to go off the rails even before 1939. True enough. But the big problem of Europe was the toxic effects of the Trianon peace treaty following WWI, which set the stage for the German reunification drive. Dismembering Hungary removed an important brake on German ambitions.


The Russian reunification drive of Putin is different from the rise of Hitler. First, the Russians do not want to return to the Soviet system, no matter how much disgruntled Russian billionaires complain about Putin. Second, the reconquest of Crimea was a legitimate objective, whereas capturing parts of Ukraine and the Baltics would reset Russian interests by antagonizing and uniting the West. Do the Russians want to capture Vilnius at great cost to their economy, or do they want to continue trading their petrochemicals?


WWII doubled down on the mistakes that followed WWI. The continuation of the dismembering of Hungary and shifting the borders of Poland to the West not only perpetuates serious injustices, but removes important players from stabilizing Europe. The US stepped into the breech (reluctantly), but how long will the US continue? The death of the US Dollar is not far off and then who will keep peace in Europe? The urge to restore diasporas is very strong and people remember.

Ingathering of the disaporas.

Diasporas (the life of people displaced from their homeland) can last a long time. But, there can come a time when as if by a signal, the diaspora begins to coalesce. Each diaspora behaves differently.

The Jewish diaspora.
The Jews were displaced from their homeland and settled in various countries in Europe, some even went to Africa and the Far East. Then at the end of the 1800s the time has arrived for the diaspora to coalesce once again and re-form their ancient homeland. Whether you believe that it was God's will for that to happen (and I happen to believe that it was) it happened against all odds.

The Russian diaspora.
Russia's diaspora arose from the simple fact: Russia has no natural barriers that provide it with a defense. Strong armies from Poland, Sweden, Lithuania, France and Germany could penetrate the country as far as their supply trains would allow until humbled by the weather and a resurgent Russian army. So, the Russian State came up with a strategy of continuous expansion as a means of defending itself. The push to the West and the South had served not only as a source of wars, but it spread Russians over the Ukraine and the Baltic states as well as in Central Asia. After the fall of the Soviet Union, millions of Russians were stranded outside of Russia. No wonder Mr Putin refers to the fall of the Soviet Union as the worst day of his life. It is not the brutality of the Communist regime Mr Putin misses but he regrets the formation of the Russian diaspora. His policies should be viewed as an attempt to restore the diaspora in an enlarged Rodina.

The Germanic diaspora.
The Germanic diaspora is a work in progress. Its proponents have tried to form it and were successful partially. The German homeland reached its zenith under Chancellor Hitler, but led to disastrous results. Germans in Austria have a separate country, the Germans of the Sudetenland have been ethnically cleansed by the Czechs and Eastern Prussia has become part of Poland. The incomplete attempts to form the Germanic homeland has been a destabilizing factor and remains a potential flash point for the future.

The Hungarian diaspora.
Hungarians fought the Germans to prevent the formation of a German State (in the 900s). Hungarian is a descendent of the Sumerian language and is the oldest spoken language. The Hungarian State under St Steven the I, was made an Apostolic State responsible for the defense of Europe and Christianity. It was a multinational country. The Germans and the English made it a priority to dismember Hungary, so they could impose their own rule in Europe. The Treaty of Trianon dismembered Hungary , putting 2/3 of its territory and 1/3 of the Hungarian population into a diaspora. The intellectual effort to recapture the Nation's history is under way. A buffer is needed between the Russians vs the Germans, French and English to insure a just peace in Europe.

It isn't only beef

but pork and shrimp and electricity are also hitting record prices. So is the # of federal regulations on the books.

US Inflation picking up.

The FED is crowing that it is finally conquering deflation. Why, if you believe their inflation numbers, inflation is now 2%. This is not the time to list how these numbers are reached. But the actual numbers put the lie to the FED. Vegetables are up between 13-30%, beef is up 20% and gasoline has gone from 3.25 to 3.44 -and this is where oil and gasoline are produced.

It is in this context that we need to look at the latest gold smash. By dumping a truckful of paper into the paper gold market, the FED can pretend that the economy is recovering and forcing gold prices down.

Meanwhile, tax collection is increasing. The Dems exalt that tax revenues are the highest in a while. Does anyone really believe that prosperity is promoted by rising taxes? There are Socialists (Democrats) who actually do believe that. Ironically, the openly Socialist govt of France is cutting welfare and pensions to reduce budget deficits.

And we do have the rising cycle of war as a background to all the economic troubles.

Ukraine: In hock to Russia.

The way President Putin figures, the Ukraine owes Russia 38.1 B Dollars. That is more than the IMF and the EU pledged to help the Ukraine. If the two loan packages go through, it will mean a transfer of some $30B to Russia. That still won't cover the Ukrainian debt. Now that Russia no longer pays rent for the Crimean base and that the discount of 80% in gas prices no longer apply, the Ukraine is insolvent.

What will the Russians do? is the question.

Egon von Greyers: Hyperinflation has already started.

Von Greyers makes the point that since food prices increased 19% in the first quarter of the year, an annualized increase in food prices of 76% is a good start toward hyperinflation. As I noted earlier in the year, art objects and high end real estate have already gone up in price and the increases have been spectacular. What has not taken off YET is the price of those items where US businesses are in competition with items imported from other countries. Thus, a pound of T-bone steak now costs $8-9, while a pound of Ancho (Anaheim) peppers grown in Mexico costs $1.80/lb.

 The underlying cause of inflation is due to the printing of more money. The FED's binge of money-printing  has been covered up by the FED forcing the banks to increase reserves and by the manipulation of the gold price.

A lot of the newly printed money is fueling the Stock Market rise in equities. The FED's idea is that a rising tide lifts all boats. This may be true of the big seaworthy yachts, but the smaller boats have sprung leaks.

A good way to follow the effects of inflation is to look at the DOW/GOLD ratio. This ratio I planned to reproduce below; however, Blogger refuses to do it. Maybe later. The ratio was over 20 in the 1920s when stocks were high and gold was low then hit 2 as stock prices crashed in the 1930s. The ratio then began to rise and hit near 30 in 1964. Then it began to fall and hit 1 in 1980 when both the DOW and GOLD were 850. On the way to this, the ratio rallied as GOLD dropped from 200 to 100, before resuming the drop. The ratio rallied to over 30 in 1998 as stocks rallied. Then the ratio again started falling and hit a low of 6 in 2011, before the current rise. , which took the ratio to about 15. The current rally in the ratio is due largely to the engineered drop in gold price. When this blip is over, the ratio is expected to fall to 0.5.


How will this drop occur? Well, the DOW could drop to 3,000 and gold increase to 6,000, but the FED will not let stocks drop that much. Or, the DOW could rise to 25,000 and GOLD to 50,000 as hyperinflation hits the US dollar. My connecting the dots points to a number of 0.3, the DOW at 25,000 and gold at maybe 35,000.

Syria: Civil War within Islam.

When the war began in Syria, it looked as if it was part of the general chaos generated in response to the "Arab Spring," the mayhem set off by the Obama regime. Soon, the religious character of the war became more dominant.

The war in Syria pits the Sunni of the Gulf against the Shia of Lebanon, Iraq and Iran. As long as American troops were in Iraq, the Sunni and Shia of Iraq depended on the Americans to maintain some fairness and peace, but when the Obama regime ended the American commitment, it was like pulling the pin from a hand grenade. The Shia of Iraq now have the upper hand and are moving Iraq into the Shia camp.

You might ax what is fueling this war. The causes go back to the very beginning of Islam and the death of the Prophet Muhammed. His assassination was the beginning of the Shia/Sunni split, which had to do with the succession of Muhammed. The divide deepened with subsequent prophecies.

The Hadith says that the strife in Sham (Syria) will begin with children playing, after which nothing can be fixed. Indeed, the war began in Deraa, where school children used graffiti to protest the Assad regime. The Hadith predicted a battle near Damascus and referred to the battles as a Jihad. The Hadith also tells of a power attacking from the North (Turkey?) and also from the West. Turkey is aligned with the Sunni rebels.

The Shia have their own prophecies. For them it is the return of the Hidden Imam, also known as the Mahdi. Assad's followers are Alewites, an offshoot of Shiism. According to Shiite prophecies,  the hidden Imam will unite Islam under his banner and be victorious over the world. Shia warriors who die in the struggle will be resurrected by the Mahdi. Another Shiite prophecy tells that part of the Mahdi's army will fight under a yellow flag and Hezbollah's flag is yellow.

Not to be left out, Christian prophecies also tell of the anti Christ, a man of the East, who will unite those opposed to God. The anti Christ will rule for three years before Jesus returns and defeats him.

As the Hadith says, Syria can not be fixed.