Wednesday, April 23, 2014

Russian and German diasporas.

There is a point made by Richard Cohen:


http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/richard-cohen-a-putin-affiliate-evokes-hitler-the-west-should-be-worried/2014/04/21/ddbd3794-c980-11e3-95f7-7ecdde72d2ea_story.html


the point is that maybe if Hitler stopped with reuniting the Germanic lands under one government (a task NOT finished by Bismark), he would be remembered as a great statesman. Cohen reminds us that Hitler began to go off the rails even before 1939. True enough. But the big problem of Europe was the toxic effects of the Trianon peace treaty following WWI, which set the stage for the German reunification drive. Dismembering Hungary removed an important brake on German ambitions.


The Russian reunification drive of Putin is different from the rise of Hitler. First, the Russians do not want to return to the Soviet system, no matter how much disgruntled Russian billionaires complain about Putin. Second, the reconquest of Crimea was a legitimate objective, whereas capturing parts of Ukraine and the Baltics would reset Russian interests by antagonizing and uniting the West. Do the Russians want to capture Vilnius at great cost to their economy, or do they want to continue trading their petrochemicals?


WWII doubled down on the mistakes that followed WWI. The continuation of the dismembering of Hungary and shifting the borders of Poland to the West not only perpetuates serious injustices, but removes important players from stabilizing Europe. The US stepped into the breech (reluctantly), but how long will the US continue? The death of the US Dollar is not far off and then who will keep peace in Europe? The urge to restore diasporas is very strong and people remember.



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