Inovio: Where is the beef?

Inovio has a stage II study from which the results are expected to be reported by the end of July.

The current study (ending) has 2 features:
1. The use of electroporation (getting DNA across the cell membrane).
2. The DNA itself. These are circular pieces of DNA that contain the sequence for the E6 and E7 antigens. Preparation is called VGX-3100. The narrowing of the antigens presumably increases the potency of the immune response.

The end point: does the treatment reduce the precancerous lesions? The spontaneous remission rate is estimated from other studies as 25%. The experiment is designed (hoped to?) cause a 53% remission.

The new study. This also has two features.
1. The use of VGX-3100 with electroporation.
2. The use of Interlukin-12 (INO-9012), an immunological activator that increases CD4 and CD8 T cell response.

The end point measures the suppression of cancer.

Comments. An article predicted that the old study failed and that management decided on the reverse stock split to prevent the stock from being delisted when the failure becomes known. This is an entirely logical supposition. The Company responded by refuting this supposition in a press release. In the meantime, a new study was started that I referred to as "The new study."

THE BIQ QUESTION: Would the Company start the new study if they knew the old (current) study failed? My answer is: YES. In the old study, the spontaneous remission is pretty high, so it is difficult to discern a positive response due to treatment. The new study will use subjects with cancer where spontaneous remission is very low and uses the immunological activator IL-12. Then this last Friday, there were 7 million shares traded (out of a total of 30 Million) so somebody either know something or think they know something. As an investor myself, I hope that the old study was successful and that knowledge of that is leaking out.