Sunday, September 7, 2014

Putin: Was he right after all?

1. Syria. President Obama tried to interfere in Syria and promote the Islamists fighting Assad. The Russians and the American people objected, so Obama desisted. Actually, Obama confined American interference to smuggling weapons via Libya. ISIS then broke out of Syria and invaded Iraq and Lybian Islamists now do belly flops in the pool at the American Embassy in Tripoli. What the Leftists of the Obama regime fail to understand is that giving in to the Islamists will not stop them in their quest for a world-wide Caliphate. Assad, on the other hand, was content to rule Syria and had no ambitions to conquer Iraq or attack the United States. Putin was right in opposing American involvement in Syria.

2. The Ukraine. Ukraine's President was overthrown by a gang financed by NGOs including Soros. The new govt of Ukraine moved to deprive Russia of its warm water port (the base at Sevastopol leased by Russia) and deny the Russians living in Ukraine their language and cultural rights. Russia moved by eventually taking over the Crimea and helping the revolutions in the Easter provinces of Ukraine. The Ukrainian govt responded by a full-scale war against its Eastern provinces, driving thousands of the populace into exile in Russia. Predictably, Russia responded by a limited invasion.

The cease fire in the Ukraine. President Putin has devised a cease fire plan of 7 points. The plan halted the fighting and submits issues to negotiations. Russia wants the Crimea and asking for it to be returned to Ukraine is a non-starter. The Russians need to supply the Crimea by land. Either the Ukrainians figure out how to do that and make money from it or the Russians will carve off a chunk of land next to the Sea of Azov to establish a land corridor to connect by land to Crimea. If the Ukraine will respect Russian language and cultural rights in the Ukraine and establish a federated structure with their Eastern provinces they can restore Ukraine's territorial integrity. But, if they listen to Western powers and just say 'NET' then Russia will permanently occupy the Donbas and Luhansk. Should the Ukrainians listen to the loser in the White House and invite NATO into the Ukraine, all hell will break lose.

Someone please transmit the immortal lyrics of the Gambler to the Ukrainian leadership:
 "You've got to know when to hold 'em
Know when to fold 'em
Know when to walk away
And know when to run"

The fact is that the Ukrainian leadership screwed up. Trying to crack down on the Russians in the Ukraine makes things worse. I remember walking the streets of  Budapest in 1956. Most of the buildings on major avenues were showing tank fire damage. Hungarians felt betrayed that the West did not come to their aid. But, if the West did come to Hungary's aid, not much would have been left of those streets. And eventually, the Russians left as Communism faded into the dust bin of history. Statesmanship now requires that the Ukraine limit the damage and figure out a way to live with the Russians in their country. It will be hard to restore trust, but what is the alternative?

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