Wednesday, March 4, 2015

Greece, Ukraine and Iran.

Greece.

All signs point to a coming disaster. You can see this in the US Dollar Index continued rise as European money flows into Dollars. Greece has another tranche of money coming from its second bailout, a  sum of aroung 7B Euros. But, that money is tied to Greece continue with its reforms; reforms that Syriza has pledged to end. In addition, there is talk of another bailout of Greece in the vicinity of E50B. That is bad enough, but tempers are flaring. The Greeks are accusing the governments of Spain and Ireland and Portugal of ganging up on them as these governments demand that Greeks do not get preferential treatment. Greece received a 4 month extension, but discussions are not going well. If Greece defaults and leaves the Euro, it faces rough going, because its currency the drachma would not be accepted. A Greek default would mean a traumatic event for the German banks.

Ukraine.

Ukraine is once again showing that it has no intention of dealing with its Eastern provinces other than considering them terrorists. There is no efforts to undertake the constitutional changes they promised. In addition, Ukraine is once again sending tanks to the cease fire line. The tanks are refurbished T64's to replace the tanks lost in the last flareup. The two breakaway provinces in the East are counting on the junked Ukrainian equipment to supplant the 60,000 tons of steel promised by Russia by 30,000 tons of steel. Much of Donetsk and Luhansk provinces under Reb control have been severely damaged by Ukrainian and Reb shelling. For now the shaky cease fire holds, but the government is obviously planning to junk it when they finish replenishing their lost tank force. I am looking to find out what countermeasures the Russians are planning.

Iran continues to execute near a thousand people a month to crush any potential opposition. The country is counting on a phony treaty "negotiated" by the O'Bungle crowd to revive its economy so it can continue to buy centrifuges and finance terrorism.

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