Has Putin lost the Ukrainian gambit?

We have been treated to opinion polls that show a hardening of Ukrainian public opinion against Russia. Ukrainians of all stripes (except in the Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts) show an increased antipathy toward Russia. In addition, Ukraine is receiving military training and some weapons from the West as well as promises of financial aid even if Ukraine defaults on payments due.

Things have been going Ukraine's way at least on the surface. Contrary to public opinion this presents a danger to the Ukraine. The danger is that the Ukrainian govt miscalculates and tries (again) the military option.

You can even see them being tempted. The casualty reports show Ukrainian soldiers being killed in what are undoubtedly offensive operations. Casualties mount on troops on the offensive because the defense is dug in. What is the danger if the Ukrainians overplay their hand (chessboard)? The danger is that Russia will either increase its aid to the Rebs or attack overtly and stop hiding behind the mask of "volunteers."

The Rebs have made the concession Kiev wanted: they agreed to remain part of Ukraine. It is now up to the Ukraine to get serious about implementing the Minsk agreement.