I know, we have predicted this for quite a while. And the sky has not fallen. Haven't the Central Banks created a framework that allows current practices to be perpetuated?
The short answer to this question is NO.
To explain why NOT, we need to review the financial situation of the major players.
1. The world in general
The regions of the world and major financial powers are interconnected. That means if one part goes belly up, there will be a 'contagion,' a spreading of the financial calamity. The global debt now is $250T. In addition, there are 2 quadrillion dollars worth of derivatives. Both, the amount of debt and the bets about it are increasing.
2. The European Union. Here is a quick rundown of EU finances.
Even though Germany is a strongest part of the Union, its flagship bank (Deutschebank) is valued at 1% of its assets and its stock keeps tumbling. DB owns derivatives that are 20x the GDP of Germany.
Other EU banks in Greece, Spain and Portugal are also bankrupt. The bailout of the Italian Bank Monte di Pasci has failed and Germany opposes any further bailout. Italy opposes any bail in (i.e. confiscating deposits to rescue the bank). The ECB has a program of printing $90/month, but it is not rescuing their economy.
3. Japan is led by financial criminals.
The Bank of Japan is now buying not only the bonds of the Japanese government, but also of Japanese companies. The BOJ has been buying Japanese stocks so it now owns 10% of its Stock Market. The "assets" of the BOJ now total $5T. And here comes the piece de resistance: the zero interest, perpetual bond. This bond will have a maturity of 10 years, will pay no interest and will not be redeemed. In case you missed it, this is just a camouflage to print more Yens.
4. China.
The national debt of China is $32T. Its corporations have another $125T of debt. More than 12% of the loans in China are 'nonperforming.' A lot of the infrastructure they built yield no income.
5. The US.
Corporate debt in the US is near $6T. Most of that money was spent on share buybacks so stocks could show rising P/E and higher prices. The Country owes $20T and debt is rising fast. The US Dollar lost 97% of its value against gold since 1976. Our two party system has become a farce as Republicans allowed Obama to spend as recklessly as he wanted.
The FED has said that they won't raise interest rates until after the election. If then. Meanwhile, another round of QE would set the stage for hyperinflation followed by a deflationary collapse.
Monday, September 26, 2016
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