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Canada’s Entire
Housing Market Is on the Verge of Collapse
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By Justin Spittler, editor, Casey Daily Dispatch
Toronto’s
housing market is unraveling.
Last
month, home sales in Canada’s biggest city fell 40%. That was the largest
annual decline since 2009.
But that
wasn’t the only bad news to come out this past month.
The price
of the average home in Toronto also fell 4.6% in July. That’s the biggest
monthly decline since at least 2000.
It was
also the third straight month that Toronto home prices fell. The average home
is now selling for $175,000 less than it did in April.
That’s a
staggering decline. But it’s just the beginning.
You see,
the number of house listings in Toronto also jumped 5% last month. There are
now 65% more homes listed for sale in Toronto than there were a year ago.
This is a
bad sign.
• It tells us homeowners in Toronto are
running for the exits…
If this
doesn’t change, the supply of Toronto homes will outstrip demand. This will
send prices even lower.
Most
investors aren’t taking this seriously. But they should.
After
all, Toronto isn’t headed for a run-of-the-mill downturn. It’s headed for a
crash.
I’m not
the only one saying this, either.
David
Madani, an economist at Capital Economics in Toronto, thinks housing prices
could plunge as much as 40%. Madani also said that the coming downturn will
be deeper and longer-lasting than previous ones.
That’s
the last thing Toronto can afford right now.
• Toronto’s housing market has been
booming for nearly two decades…
Local
housing prices are now up 218% since 2000.
That’s
far more than prices have climbed in New York, Miami, Las Vegas, and even San
Francisco.
Prices
have risen so quickly, the average person can no longer afford to live in
Toronto. These days, the only way to swing it is to borrow huge sums of
money.
It’s
complete insanity.
That’s
why I’ve been writing about Toronto’s housing bubble this year. It’s also why
I’ve been urging investors to take shelter.
If you
took my advice, great. You’re much better off for it. If you haven’t yet,
please read this essay closely.
As you’re
about to see, a Toronto housing crash isn’t just a problem for Canadian real
estate investors. Anyone with money in Canada’s stock market is in danger
right now.
I’ll
explain why in today’s essay. I’ll also tell you how to “flip” this crisis
into big profits.
But let’s
first be clear about something. This isn’t just happening in Toronto.
• Canada’s entire housing market is
collapsing…
In June,
nationwide home resales fell 6.7%.
That’s
the biggest monthly drop since 2010. It was also the third consecutive month
that this happened.
The
number of monthly home sales in Canada is now down 14% since April.
That’s a
big drop. But it’s only going to get worse.
You can
see why by looking at the chart below. It shows Canadian housing
prices going back to 1975. It also tracks U.S. housing prices for
comparison.
You can
see that Canada’s housing market wasn’t slowed down by the last global
financial crisis. It just kept rolling.
Canadian
housing prices are now up 101% since 2009. And they’re up 218% since 2000.
U.S. housing prices are up 85% over the same period.
As if
that weren’t crazy enough, the average house in Canada is now selling for 16
times more than the average Canadian’s income. For perspective, this same
ratio peaked at 12.5 during the last U.S. housing bubble.
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