Friday, August 14, 2009

Carl Denninger looks at retail and food service.

U. S. Census Bureau announces preliminary numbers for July for retail and food services. Then Carl Denninger runs the numbers in Seeking Alpha. Here are the details:

"
Electronics, the "high tech will save us" meme of Cramer and the rest of Tout TV: Down sequentially (8,156 .vs. 8,275), even though this is the start of "back to school" buying of laptops and similar. It is also down from $9,554 last year, a monstrous decrease.
Building materials, down as well, despite the so-called "better home starts", again sequentially, July from June.
Gasoline, down despite the price of gasoline being flat to slightly up. Uh, isn't this summer vacation driving season? Ah, people aren't going out are they?
Clothing is up a bit sequentially ($17,131 .vs. $17,027) but down huge from last year ($18,540)
General merchandise stores, down sequentially and off about 4% from last year.
Non-store retailers (e.g. online buying) up a bit, $24,058 .vs. $24,025) but down big from last year ($25,388)
There was, however, one green shoot. Bars (in "food and drinking places") were up both sequentially and year/over/year.
So if the economy sucks you won't buy much, but you will go out and get drunk. Sounds rational to me."

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