Geezer predictions on gold, dollar and the market.

My last prediction was that gold would hit 1120 intraday before retreating for the rest of the month. Today, gold price actually hit 1123.33 before retreating. My prediction is that it will retreat to 1090 before rallying again in December.

The dollar staged a small rally today, moving almost a half a point to 75.7. This is due to the pouring of money into UUP, the ETF that has shares that are equivalent to contracts to buy dollars. In other words, this is manipulative and is not due to market forces that would make the dollar stronger. I likened this sleight of hand move to a desparate man pulling on one leg to get out of a mudhole. While, it is possible to raise one leg, it simply drives the other leg down deeper. According to standard technical analysis, the dollar would have to move past 76.5 to be considered in a real rally. It might. But, in the long run, the rally is not sustainable.

In line with the rally of the dollar, oil moved down.

Gold mining stocks had moved lower on the uptick in the dollar, but the down move is in line with the drop in gold. Let me explain this in greater depth. During September and October, gold miners increased in value far faster than gold itself, abot 4-10 times faster than gold. The reason for this is that the value of a gold miner discounts the price of the cost of mining AND the cost of exploration. As gold moves below 1100 during the next two weeks, I expect gold miners to drop some but not as much as they did during October.

One more comment. The movement of gold is deliberate and orderly. Some people are controlling it. There are plenty of suspects.