Monday, July 2, 2012

Attempts to solve the Euro crisis.

First, why is there a crisis? A: because nominal GDPs are smaller than the liabilities of European (and American) countries.

This can be solved in only two ways: 1. By reducing liabilities (i.e. govt payments and programs) or 2. by introducing inflation.

People will vote down solution "1" so solution two will be applied. Since, the ECB does not have a mandate to print money, inflation can be instituted by the European Stability Mechanism(ESM). If the ESM is declared a Bank, it can print paper certificates, pretend that these are money and sell them to the ECB. This way, the ESM can leverage the E500B into many more Euros.

This will work in the short run, but not in the long run. Experience tells us that no country succeeded by debasing its currency. NONE, without exception. The current crop of Socialists (whether called Social Democrats in Europe, Communists in China or Liberals in the US) believes it can succeed because it is smarter and more caring. Untill the world disposes of such nonsence (probably by disposing of the people that spread it), the crisis will grow and grow.

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