Monday, July 23, 2012

What will be the Black Swan event?

A Black Swan event is defined as an unexpected event that throws the Market(s) into a swoon.

We have a wide choice of Black Swans in Europe: 1. Greece leaving the EU, 2. The Eu kicking Greece out, 3. Spain entering default, 4. Italy entering default, Al Qaeda attacking the London Olympics. Then we have candidates outside of Europe: an Egyptian civil war, Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz and Syria deploying chemical weapons.

There are plenty of candidates in the US: the Press getting hold of Obama's use of cocaine, the murders of his homosexual friends and church members in Chicago, the FED declaring QE3 or turning loose the banks to quadruple the money supply, economic numbers deteriorating, etc.

The grand daddy of all black birdie would be the repudiation of the US Dollar as an international currency. Then there is the formation of military police deployable in the US to quell disturbances (Three battalions now exist), etc. These will be adventurous time, as of the Chinese curse.

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