Ukraine: making of a Black Swan?

The Ukraine has the makings of developing into a Black Swan. There is a path of escalation that can easily lead to that.

On one side we have an impotent EU, led by 6 female heads of military activities. Then there is John Kerry and his boss: incompetent novices when it comes to foreign policy. Democrats always drag us into conflict. First, by preaching appeasement until our adversaries push their luck into areas vital to us.

On the other side we have Russia, led by Mr Putin, who is flush from a successful Winter Olympics. Mr Putin has successfully plugged into Russian national pride. The Sochi Olympics was a big step toward fostering Russian nationalistic feeling. The events in the Ukraine play right into Putin's hands. The Ukrainian dissidents want to take the country into the EU, further submerging the Russian component of the Ukraine. A Ukraine that is part of the EU (and NATO) is Russia's nightmare and will not be tolerated. Russia has mobilized its troops on the Ukrainian border, while Russian troops from a nearby base have seized the regional parliament in Sebastopol and raised the Russian flag.

There is much at stake. Russia's oil and gas goes through the Ukraine and any serious interruption may invite American companies to move into Europe. The Ukraine is bankrupt and needs a bailout. Will events escalate to the point of an invasion? That would be a Black Swan with serious economic repercussions.