What is a Black Swan?
It is an event that is a) unexpected in the specifics and b) turns out far more important than originally believed.
Can we predict when it will occur? NO!.
Can we predict what it will be? In general terms, YES. It will be an event that will destroy the confidence in the US Dollar.
What will set off this event? Take your pick. A reversal of tapering? A general selloff of US Treasuries? A large increase in interest rates? Or a resumption of the Cold War?
Incidentally, Larry reiterated his judgment of the PM market (a bear market rally). Just in case you wondered how come PMs were up today.
Monday, February 24, 2014
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