Friday, August 5, 2016

Predicting things is hard, especially the future (YB).

Economic news is pushing stock markets upward. It will take several days to analyze the inner guts of the news; meanwhile stocks will continue to go upward and the PM Market will take a hit.

Big news out of the UK. Interest rates were lowered by 0.25% (25 basis point), QE was expanded by 60B Pounds to 375B pounds and a modest bond buying program of 10B in 1.5 years was initiated. These actions drive up the stocks and flatten the yield curve (the difference between very short term and short term bonds). These cumulative actions have a negative effects on banks, pension funds and insurers. In other words, the British are following our example of trying to jump start their economy by gambling on fiscal measures that failed so far.

Meanwhile, the Obama regime is taking laps over the report of 255K jobs added in July. At this point we do not know how much is real and how much is padding via the "seasonal adjustment" gimmick.

Gold had fallen $23/oz and silver by seventy cents. Is this the long-awaited correction in PM prices? Hard to tell. There are reports of large funds coming into the PM market and the miners are down but not as much as the metals themselves.

The US Dollar is up again and the British pound is down.

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