Tuesday, June 19, 2012

Greece: the World moved on.

Sunday was the day of a new election in Greece, because the election in May was inconclusive. It resulted in a a win for the "Conservative" Party, the NDP. The Greek system gives the winning Party another 50 seats and with that the NDP has 137 seats to Syriza's 73 and PASOK's 33. In order to form a government, NDP needs a coalition partner. Since, Syriza is not willing, that means a coalition with the Socialists, PASOK. And thereby hangs the tail. A coalition between NDP and PASOK can only happen if NDP accepts the premises of the Greek Socialists: continued redistributionist policies - in other words, continued economic failure.

The election was a transgenerational contest between the older generation that accepts the promises of the Socialists and the "Conservatives" to live on borrowed money, vs the younger generation that wants to get off that thread. Unfortunately, Syriza is a radical leftist group and it has as much chance of instituting successful changes as did the Obama regime: meaning slim and none.

So, Greece is back where it started: unpayable debt, economic depression and political uncertainty. The country will run out of money next month and will need another bailout. No wonder the investment world was underwhelmed by the outcome of the Greek election.

Meanwhile, the G20 nations are promising a plan to promote growth. How? We will have to see, but do not hold your breath. And the World has moved on. Greece is no longer the center of attention, Spain is. And Italy.  

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