Wednesday, June 13, 2012

World-wide rain of stimulus.

The imposition of 'mark-to-market' accounting in the midst of sliding real estate prices achieved its intended aim: it elected Obama. But, it had other effects; namely, the destruction of a lot of capital. In addition, Obama's nationalizing GM, the mortgage industry and student loans destabilized the banks and led to further capital destruction. The subsequent economic slump was world-wide. The slump aggravated the financial crisis of Europe, which suffers from too much debt.

Governments world-wide are responding by stimulus packages to restore what they consider acceptable growth. China has lowered bank rates and banks can increase their discounts. India is accelerating port and terminal construction and power generation to combat their growth rate falling to 5.4%. Japan has printed gobs of money and so did England.

This leaves two areas where stimulus is not raining from the sky: the EU and the US. Fed members are calling for more stimulus in the US and the FED is meeting very soon. Financial experts expect a form of QE3, though its form is not known. That leaves the EU.

By now it is clear that "austerity" is not solving either the recessions of Greece, Spain or the rest of the EU. It is the resistance of Germany to stimulus that is said to stand in the way of more printing by the ECB. However, default by either Greece, Spain or Italy would jeopardise German banks and Chancellor Merkel is reported to be changing her mind.

Odds are that a concerted stimulus is in the works.

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