Sunday, January 18, 2015

A flock of black swans.

Last week was a doozy. First it was the aftermath of the Paris massacre with America's President siding with the Islamists by refusing to join the march against terrorism in Paris. Then came the Swiss avalanche. Anticipating that the ECB will do a QE after all (and print Euros by the Billions), the Swiss National Bank decided to stop supporting the Euro. That sent the Franc up 30%. By now, most of that change had subsided, no doubt at the intervention of the FED. Gold broke past the 1,220 resistance and ended the week at 1,277. Just as Larry Edelson forecasted, except that gold did not first go below 1,000.


Other black swans are circling, ready to land.


1. Rebels in Eastern Ukraine claim that they have captured the Donetsk airport, which by now is nothing but a wreck. A greater offensive is promised;


2. Also in the Ukraine, Russia has shut off the gas through the Ukraine, claiming Ukraine steals gas without paying;


3. Russia has put missiles in the Caspian Sea, missiles that can reach most of the Middle East and a lot of Europe;


4. The Davos meeting is next week;


5. Syriza, the Marxist party of Greece has increased its lead in the polls just ahead of the Greek elections. Syriza promises to end austerity and default on its debt while still staying in the EU and continuing to use the Euro. This would be a big blow to German banks. It is not clear what will happen if Syriza wins but can not get enough votes to end austerity or form a government.


Volatility is increasing.

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