Wednesday, January 14, 2015

What is ailing Western economies?

In spite of the stories of fabulous job numbers, even the US is ailing and Japan and Europe are seriously sick.


JAPAN.
Japan made a choice 15-20 years ago and it was the wrong one. This is a Country that has swallowed the bait of Keynesian economics hook, line and sinker. Trying to stimulate the economy by deficit spending is what got Japan where it is today. And where is that? The ratio of National Debt to GDP is nearing 3, so the debt will never be  repaid because it can not be repaid. The Japanese Yen has been losing its value, so the Japanese can buy less with their earnings. And Japan's savings have been 'invested' in government bonds that earn next to nothing and will be eventually worth nothing. Japan can not normalize its interest rates, because if rates went up the country would be insolvent. The low interest rates prevent the people from earning money from savings and retirees have less income. Young people do not have children, because they can not afford it. So, the Japanese population is shrinking.


EUROPE.
The continent is not homogeneous and despite membership in the EU, it is not one country. While EU countries try to limit deficit to 3%/year, with little growth, national debts can rise 10% every three years. Europe is on the path of Japan but a bit slower. The ECB has been promising QE, but failed to carry it out. In addition, the climate frauds made energy more expensive than it should be, so energy prices act as another tax. The VAT sucks the continent dry of capital. EU currency is also losing its value and Europeans invest heavily in US Dollars, thinking it safe.


THE US.
The US is also on the Keynesian path to destruction but even slower than Europe. What is saving us for the time being is that many States have Republican Governors and legislatures that limit the growth of government and try to be business friendly. As a consequence, the US economy is still growing. Dark clouds are threatening us though. We have a President who is addicted to policies that got Japan and Europe in trouble. He also suffers from megalomania, believing that he can govern against the wishes of the people and Congress. The low interest rates foster the banks trying to earn money from derivatives, which are make believe money that can disappear overnight. In addition, the low price of oil engineered by the Saudis threaten our oil companies and their indebtedness that is close to a trillion dollars. If those bonds disappear, our banks will be in serious trouble. Yet, despite this, the US Dollar is being inflated in value by the influx of other currencies. This reduces our exports. Obamacare continues to raise taxes, another negative influence on the economy. And the FED is inflating the housing bubble and the Stock Market bubble.


When the Markets assert themselves there will be Hell to pay.

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