The next three black swans.

We have already seen the first, at least it was announced: the European Central Bank will increase the amount of Euros (their QE) by 1.2T. The Euro promptly tanked driving the US Dollar pats 94.


The second black swan is the increase of fighting in the Ukraine. You might think that the loss of a ruined airport is not very meaningful, but it means that government forces are once again being pushed by the Rebels. The Ukrainian govt claims that there has been a further influx of Russian troops and that may be, but the equation of strength is changing once again. Western powers are once again are giving aid and encouragement to the Ukraine and even American advisors are on the scene. The danger is increasing. Continued sanctions against Russia, the attacks on the Rubl and further goading of the Ukraine means that Russia may be put in a position where it has little to lose by a full scale invasion.


The third black swan is the coming election this Sunday in Greece. Syriza has solidified its gains in the polls. If it wins, it will take steps to try to force a default of its loans (about $250B) placing European banks under threat of insolvency. Syriza has a problem though. Even though it gets a 50 seat bonus if it wins, it will still have to have a coalition partner unless its victory margin is larger than expected.
What remains doubtful is if Syriza will secure the minimum 151 seats in Greece's 300-member parliament that it needs to govern alone. If not, it must look for a partner from a smaller party.
With the politically untouchable, Nazi-inspired Golden Dawn party, whose leadership is in jail awaiting trial for running a criminal organization, and the Communist Party — which refuses to cooperate with anyone — out of the picture, possible partners include the new, centrist but untried Potami (River) party or the once-formidable PASOK Socialists.
A third option could be governing with the populist right-wing Independent Greeks, who agree with Syriza on need to end the austerity but disagree on about everything else. I think Syriza will team up with PASOK. In any case, if Syriza is successful, about $300B will disappear into smoke.