Yogi Berra allegedly said that 'it is hard to predict things; especially the future.' This has a special meaning for developments in the Precious Metal (PM) market. Those of you who studied statistics know that when something is affected by two variables (A and B, for instance) there is also an interaction between A and B (denoted as AxB). So, the calculations take into consideration the size of AxB. If AxB is small, the the outcome is predetermined almost entirely by A and B. If there are three variables that determine the outcome (A,B, and C) then the interactions multiply:AxB, AxC, BxC and AxBxC. The practical application of this is that the more complex a society becomes, the more difficult it is to regulate it from the top. That is why a Market Economy is so superior to Central Planning: Central Planning has a lot of variables, Market Economy has two: supply and demand.
Back to precious metals and mining shares. Fitzpatrick has been the most accurate Chartist lately and he points out the importance of $1791/oz as a critical level for the gold price. He believes that gold will now do some 'backfilling' untill it moves past 1791. After that, it will advance to 1900 and do so rapidly. Once the 1900 level is breached, gold will move several hundred dollars.
So, why will the mining shares explode? First, because the mining shares have been pushed to ridiculous levels during the correction. But, the main reason is this: the public has been duped by the pundits (who act as shills of the regime). They will be late arriving to the party and their path to owning gold will be most efficient through buying mining shares.
Wednesday, September 26, 2012
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