Wednesday, December 2, 2015

The unfolding demise of the Euro and the EU.

Frankly, when I first read Larry's cycle conclusion that the Euro will self-destruct and that the EU itself will go into the tubes, I was more than skeptical. Unless you were born in Europe, it is hard to describe the joy of being able to travel from one country to the other, of being free of the threat of war. Yet, a generation of democratic socialists have managed to do the unexpected.

First, let's look at the Euro. Its slide can hardly be denied.
Is it a coincidence that the fall of the Euro coincides with the Presidency of Obama? Not really. The fall of gold prices and of the Euro have been engineered by the FED to reduce inflation resulting from the printing of several trillion dollars.  Ironically, the printing of Dollars have not helped, but it sure hurt Europe.

The European economy has not been doing well. So, it will not surprise you that the ECB is planning a dump of Euros, believing that the printing of money will improve the economy. This action is being negated by the IMF. The IMF decreed that banks will go from 1% of reserves in Yuan to 11%. To make room for the Yuan, banks will have to reduce their Euro holdings by 16%. The sudden spike in the Dollar corresponds to banks unloading some Euros.

That is not the end of the bad news for Europe. There is also the influx of an Islamic army (mostly Syrian) that demands to be fed, given medical care and housing. There is the looming vote in Great Britain to leave the EU and the flareup between Turkey and Russia. Unfortunately for Europe, Turkey is a member of NATO, which means a confrontation between Russia and NATO.

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