Italy: you will hear this shoe drop.

On the surface the referendum on Dec 4 does not sound like a big deal. But it is. As usual, everything about Italian politics is convoluted. So, here I will try to make sense of it.

First, Italy's parliamentary system is complicated:

The Italian Parliament is described as a perfectly symmetric bicameral legislature, in that it has a lower house (the Chamber of Deputies) and an upper house (the Senate of the Republic) with the following characteristics:

• The two houses are elected simultaneously and for the same five-year term.
• The Government must have each house's confidence, and is responsible to both of them.
• All legislation must be passed in the same text by both houses: whenever a bill is amended by either house, it must be sent to the other one in a potentially endless process known as the navetta parlamentare (parliamentary shuttle).

This provides endless entertainment to the citizenry.

Second, amending Italy's Constitution is even more fun. Here is the Amendment:

concerning 'Provisions for overcoming equal bicameralism, reducing the number of Members of Parliament, limiting the operating costs of the institutions, the suppression of the CNEL and the revision of Title V of Part II of the Constitution' approved by Parliament and published in the Official Gazette no. 88 of 15 April 2016?
Date	4 December 2016
Results by provinces   Yes —   No

A constitutional referendum will be held in Italy on Sunday 4 December 2016.^[1] Voters will be asked whether they approve of amending the Italian Constitution to reform the appointment and powers of the Parliament of Italy,^[2] as well as the partition of powers of State, Regions, and administrative entities.

The bill, proposed by Prime Minister Matteo Renzi and his centre-left Democratic Party, was first introduced by the government in the Senate on 8 April 2014. After several amendments by both the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies, the bill received its first approval on 13 October 2015 (Senate) and 11 January 2016 (Chamber), and, eventually, its second and final approval on 20 January 2016 (Senate) and 12 April 2016 (Chamber).^[3]

In accordance with Article 138 of the Constitution, a referendum was called because the constitutional amendment had not been approved by a qualified majority of two-thirds in each house of the Parliament in the second voting.^[4] The reform will not become law unless it receives a majority of "Yes" votes in the referendum. This will be the third constitutional referendum in the history of the Italian Republic: the other two were in 2001 (which was approved) and 2006 (which was rejected).

Should the voters approve the bill, it would achieve the most extensive constitutional reform in Italy since the end of the monarchy, not only influencing the organization of the Parliament, but also improving, according to its proponents, on the poor government stability of the country. Opposition parties have harshly criticised the bill, claiming that it is badly written and that it will make the government too powerful.^[5]

 

 

 

^{Entertaining, no?}

 

^{But the consequences will matter.}

 

^{What are the consequences?}

 

^{Well, PM Renzi threatened to resign and call for elections if the Referendum fails.}

^{Please hold the laughter.}

^{Aren't the three major forms of entertainment in Italy...soccer, operas and government changes? Yes they are. But this time the govt change involves a lot of money.}

^{Italian banks are bankrupt. And they will not be bailed out by the ECB. And the Renzi govt is planning a "bail-in" which is the confiscation}

^{of depositor money to rescue the banks. Depositors will be in a mood to punish the Elite. And the opposition (such as Beppe Grillo) want Italy to leave the EU and bring back the Lira.}  

^{A "NO" vote will continue on the heals of Brexit toward the dissolution of the EU.}