Tuesday, October 10, 2017

Europe: in the hot seat again.

Europeans face a short term and a long term problem.
 
At 11 o'clock today the leadership of Catalonia of Spain (for now) must fish or cut bait and declare whether Catalonia regards itself as independent or part of Spain. Catalonia is the most developed region of Spain, so expect the central govt of PM Rajoy to use all means at hand to try to prevent independence for Catalonia. France and Germany do not support independence. Spanish banks have already moved out of Catalonia and further economic calamities are threatened.
 
The other problem arises from the economic disparity between Eastern Europe and Western Europe. The minimum wage in E Europe is 350 Euros/month, whereas it is 1,250 in W Europe. This drains high skilled workers from E Europe. Add to this the resistance of E Europe to the Islamic influx into Europe and this creates friction. The EU recently threatened Poland with sanctions and predictably Hungary objected. If Brussels continues its high handed treatment of E Europe, the Visegrad group of, Hungary, Slovakia, the Czech Republic (whichever way it ends up being spelled)  and Poland will come to their own independence decision.
 
East Europe joined the EU for the perceived economic advantage. If  that perception changes the union may rupture.

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