Handicapping the mid terms.

This election is hard to handicap. On the one hand, we have the Drive-by-Media and its 'conventional wisdom.' They predict that the Dems will carry the House and maybe even the Senate. The Dems are planning all sorts of nastiness if they do carry the House. Nancy Polosi has said that when the Dems take over, those who disagree with them will be collateral damage.

The last election's outcome was correctly forecast by Rasmussen and just a couple of other sources. So, what does Rasmussen predicts this time? Rasmussen says that the Dems need a net of 23 House seats and now have close to 17. On the Senate side, the Reps have 50 and 5 are tossups.

There is one wild card that everyone ignores. Thirty seven percent of Trump voters refuse to talk to pollsters. I am one of them. Consequently, the Trump vote was grossly undercounted and so is the Republican vote in the coming election. The generic vote is again in favor of Republicans. Normally, the spread favors the Dems by 7 points and that's when the elections are tied. But, the generic vote is even and that favors the Republicans.

The Drive-buys count on the Dem faithful to be angry and full of hate and some are. But people have little to be angry about. The state of the economy is good and people have jobs. On the other side, the Republicans know that the Dems want to undo the tax cut and create mayhem if they can. And that is supposed to encourage Independents to vote for them?

My prediction is different. I do believe that the undercounting of the Trump vote is real and
much worse than it was 2 years ago. So, I predict that the Republicans will pick up 3 seats in the House and ten seats in the Senate.