Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Inflation has begun.


While, some people are still arguing about the dollar, inflation is already under way. Let's look at gold prices first. Gold broke out of its trading range during August and increased in price from 940 to 1020 (80 dollars) before it corrected. The current upleg might take it from 980 to 1070 if the rate of change in gold prices continues. This morning gold briefly hit 1066 before pulling back.
Look at gold mining stocks now. You see that gold mining stocks are rising faster than the gold price, because of leverage.
You see the same type of leverage for steel, oil and copper as well. So the movement in prices is not due to fear so much as to a recognition of the inflation already under way.

The Obama-Bernanke regime is caught in its own trap: if they keep interest rates low and continue to print money, inflation will devour the dollar. If they increase interest rates, the Stock Market and the economy will crash and we will have a double dip recession. If interest rates are raised modestly then we will have inflation and a stagnant economy, recapitulating Jimmy Carter - another Nobel Piss Prize winner and failure.

Ronald Reagan showed us how to get out of a stagflation: reduce taxes and costly regs and if possible, cut spending. Unfortunately, the Obama regime is doing just the opposite.

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