Let's look at various parameters. Unemployement is now over 10% (officially 9.8%). It is not getting better. In fact, another 263,000 jobs have been lost in the latest period. What about the GDP figure, you ax? Very much distorted. How? The GDP includes government spending and government spending is being fueled by borrowed money and printed money. So, the economy is not recovering. There is no international recovery either.
Housing - one of the legs of the economy? The government has moved in and most of the mortgage money is now poured in by the FED. The Lumber Index is stuck in low gear just as construction season is winding down. This leg is weak.
Consumer confidence and spending. The other leg of the economy. Consumer confidence took an unexpected drop in the latest reporting. Consumer spending is dragged down by the many people out of work. There is no adaquate substitute for jobs.
Stock Market. The S&P 500 is running out of steam. So are a lot of the stocks. Overall, the Stock Market is still doing OK.
The S&P 500 is taking a hit, but is still running ahead of the 50DMA and the DJI is likewise doing well. Where you note deterioration is in the monthly average plotted against the 200 DMA. The S&P 500 is yet to confirm a Bull Market by crossing the 200 DMA.
Gold and the dollar. Gold continues to have higher highs, in spite of dire predictions from the cycle thory. While, gold is taking a breather (and testing the 990 support level), the dollar is rallying some. Yet everyone considers this rally temporary.
Obamanomics has failed and we are most likely in for another drop in the Stock Market.
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