Ukraine: getting ready to rumble.

Ukraine has not returned to peace. Why not? Because the Kiev government feels that it has superiority of numbers (it has plans of fielding an armed force of 250,000) and it has a strong artillery. On the political front,  Russia has been stopped, its strength neutralized. Gas deliveries to Europe continue, but in the long term the US is building LNG terminals to supply Europe. Russia's economy has been hurt by the sanctions and the successful attacks on the Ruble which lost 50% of its value. The Ukrainian currency, the hrivne, has also lost 50% of its value. One would think that the economic cost would deter the two countries from further action.

Those who believe that do not realize the deep-seated feelings that drive the situation. Russia  feels aggrieved that NATO has crept to its border. Once again, there is a hostile entity on Russia's Western border. Putin is said to have two priorities: 1. to prevent Ukraine to be part of the EU and NATO and 2. he will not let Donetsk and Luhansk lose.

The situation on the ground points to a restart of the rumbles. Previous predictions of restart by May five have indeed been accurate as the Ukrainians shelled Donetsk City and there are skirmishes around Mariupol. Protestations by the Kiev govt that the Rebs had shelled Donets to have an excuse to restart are as lame as Russian protestations that they are not sending weapons and soldiers.

There is a new deadline, May 9 plus a week. May 9 is the Victory Day parade in Moscow and a national holiday. It will take some time for the Russian staff to disperse and turn its attention West.