Ukraine and Greece: spotlight on economics.

1. Ukraine. The one year long turmoil and fighting is beginning to take its toll in a serious way. The hryvnia's value (always an indicator of economic trouble) fell from 9 to a Dollar a year ago to 30 this week. Donetsk and Luhansk are basket cases economically and towns have been subjected to brutal shelling with heavy artillery. The Ukrainian army lost most of its tanks so it relies on self-propelled artillery. Unemployment is rising and only European aid in the billions keeps the Country afloat. Unless the Country can find an accommodation with its Eastern provinces and Russia, it will implode economically as well as militarily.


What are the chances of accommodation? Poor it seems. Minsk2 is now dead and Ukrainian politicians are urging NATO to go to war with Russia, even if it means an atomic war.


2. Greece. The Country is broke. It can not continue doing what got it into trouble and the people will no longer tolerate austerity. Greece needs money to stay in the EU, but that collides with the promises of Syriza. Preliminary negotiations between EU finance ministers and the Greeks have resulted in a 4 month delay of reckoning and Greek proposals to discuss the situation were accepted as a basis of further discussion. In diplomatic speak that means that the proposals have been rejected. In the meantime, some Syriza members accuse the govt of having broken its election promises and opposition is rising to keeping ANY of the austerity. According to the EU, Greece needs to record a 4% budgetary surplus to service its loans and Greece is still running a deficit. As in Ukraine, the prognosis is bad.