Ukraine and Greece: two flashpoints.

Greece.


The new (ultra-Leftist) government of Greece lost very little time in trying to implement its agenda. The first priority of the Greek leftists is to cancel Greece's debt. In truth, Greece is bankrupt. Much of the new loans were used to pay off old loans or pay the interest on the debt. Meanwhile, Greece's economy shrank a quarter. Greece's problems can not, however, be solved by returning to the welfare society built under the Socialist PASOK govt. The new, Greek govt has an insoluble problem: it wants to cancel debts yet persuade its lenders to extend more loans.


Then there is a new factor: the Chinese-Russian nutcracker.  Russia wants to build a pipeline to Greece, while China is interested in building a rapid rail system. I suspect that the ultimate aim of these moves is to break up the EU and NATO. China is on the march: militarily, industrially and financially. Russia backs up China by supplying gas and oil and also wants to end the Dollar as the reserve currency.  Losing that status would engender a financial calamity in the US that is almost impossible to imagine.


Ukraine.


President Poroshenko has let the cat out of the bag. His govt used the cease fire to build up their first line of defense and to build a back up defensive line. In addition, he declares that Ukraine will never become a Federation, thus going back on the promises of Minsk. Thus, there is no reason for the Rebs of the East to stop fighting or for the Russians to do what they do.


The Ukrainian govt is making two mistakes: 1. a military one by sending troops into the cul-de-sac of Debaltseve. This is an important (though not crucial) railroad junction between Luhansk and Donetsk. Defending a cul-de-sack is a difficult battle. Reinforcement is difficult and there is a constant threat of it being cut off and forces being surrounded. The obvious solution is a breakout or general attack to eliminate the situation. 2. The political mistake is to ask the West to send "defensive" weapons to Ukraine. If such is agreed to, it will give the Russians a legal pretext to up their already robust help to the Rebs or invade openly, upping the ante in the cold war.